In the last few days, the powerful rotation from growth stocks to value stocks, highlighted in our colleague Alex Harding’s article last week, continued.
Faster Growth, Slower Inflation
Patience Pays
While market participants were keenly focused on fresh inflation data this week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed another milestone, passing 40,000 for the first time. Whenever the stock market reaches a new territory, we always want to revisit what the world was like when our firm was founded in 1975. When Ferguson Wellman opened its doors, the Dow traded at a price of 616.
Slowing Progress
Inflation has been the most watched economic data point for the past two years. On Wednesday, we received inflation data for the month of April. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% compared to the prior month and 4.9% compared to the year-ago period. 4.9% compares to economist expectations for an increase of 5.0%, equal to the 5.0% increase seen in March.
Data > Headlines
To both economists and investors, one of the biggest surprises to begin 2023 has been the resilience of the economy, and in particular the labor market. Coming off the back of the most rapid Federal Reserve tightening cycle in decades, many assumed that economic data would prove recessionary as soon as the calendar flipped. While leading indicators still point to a slowing in the economy ahead, recession still seems a ways away.
This Too Shall Pass
It has been a very challenging year for the capital markets. Not only have stocks entered a bear market, but bonds are on pace to have their worst return in more than a century. Typically, bonds have a negative correlation with stocks, and, as such, tend to have strong returns when stocks decline. However, this is the first time in 52 years that stocks and bonds fell in the same year.
Groundhog Day
In recent months, investors have understandably been obsessing over the Fed and inflation. This week was action-packed for the markets, with the Fed meeting and October employment report taking place. Writing about the Fed has come to feel like Groundhog Day…
No Blinking in the Tetons
The major event in the capital markets this week took place Friday morning in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Every year, Federal Reserve Bank leadership meets for a conference to discuss current and future policy. Ahead of today’s meeting, some investors had been optimistic that Powell would soften his stance on the pace of tightening.
Dry Powder
U.S. markets have begun the third quarter with positive returns, erasing some of the losses that occurred in the first half of the year. Specifically, the market has recouped about one-fourth of the year-to-date loss in stock prices. It remains to be seen how long this rally will last, but there have been a couple of positive developments, despite a palpable slowing in economic growth.
Too Hot to Handle
Markets sold off this week, and dramatically on Friday, as new inflation data showed price increases reaccelerated in May. This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the most well-known measure of inflation, increased 1.0% in the month of May and increased 8.6% compared to the year-ago period. This number marks a new 41-year high for inflation.
Mixed Reviews
This week, there was a plethora of economic and company-specific news for investors to digest. Specifically, the release of first quarter U.S. GDP, reported quarterly earnings by major technology companies and the unanimous vote by Twitter’s board to approve Elon Musk’s offer to take the company private. In response to this news, the market declined 4%, with all of the weekly losses occurring Friday afternoon.
Navigating a Geopolitical Crisis
The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine remained atop the headlines this week and without a doubt have had a material impact on the capital markets.
2022 Investment Outlook Video: Extraordinary to Ordinary
The Strong Get Stronger
This week, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell announced that later this month the Fed will begin “tapering” its asset purchase program now that the economy has moved past the need for extraordinary stimulus. As a reminder, to combat the recessionary effects of the pandemic and stimulate the economy, the Fed reduced interest rates to 0% and reintroduced an asset purchase program to the tune of $120 billion per month. By any measure, this is a remarkably large stimulus program.
Climbing the "Wall of Worry"
After declining close to 6% between September 3 and October 4, the stock market is back at all time highs. Once again, it appears the market is beginning to climb the proverbial “wall of worry.”
Soundproof Markets
All eyes were fixated across several facets of policy this week: the U.S. military withdrawal and civilian evacuation in Afghanistan, the much-anticipated bargaining in Congress to pass the budget resolution and lastly Fed Chair Powell’s comments regarding the plans for removing the extraordinary accommodation put in place during the pandemic-induced recession.
Hot Off The Press
Inflation, fast becoming the most dominant market and economic theme of 2021, has media and market commentators fixated on the topic, this blog included. In fact, this will be our fourth entry covering inflation in the past five weeks. While we apologize for “beating a dead horse,” we would be remiss if we did not provide our readers with further clarification on the subject.
New Leadership and The Vaccine Pivot
Last November, Pfizer announced a 95 percent efficacy of their COVID-19 vaccine. Since that time, there has been a notable shift in leadership within the stock market.
Focus on the Fundamentals
As long-term investors, we were pleased to see market news pivot away from last week’s GameStop mania and shift back to a focus on fundamentals. Although we prefer rational markets, we take no pleasure in the knowledge that many retail investors who purchased GameStop at more than $300 per share have seen the share price tumble to around $60.
