George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
This week investors shrugged off hotter-than-expected inflation data, one of the most important data inputs for the Fed in deciding its next policy moves. The impact of the Fed aggressively raising rates over the past year has brought inflation down from a whopping 9% in June 2022 to 3% by the end of 2023. The Fed’s ultimate target is 2%. Much like updating a computer, the last bit sometimes takes the longest.
Presenting our fourth quarter 2023 publication of Market Letter titled, “Inflation’s Flame Flickers.”
Having already digested 90% of the S&P 500’s second quarter results, investors this week parsed earnings for the major retailers still left to report. Despite the likes of Home Depot and Wal-Mart continuing the recent trend of companies delivering better-than-expected earnings, the recent rise in longer-term bond yields is dampening investors’ enthusiasm for stocks.
Ferguson Wellman presents its mid-year investment outlook in partnership with the Portland and Puget Sound Business Journals. Originally aired July 13, 2022.
U.S. markets have begun the third quarter with positive returns, erasing some of the losses that occurred in the first half of the year. Specifically, the market has recouped about one-fourth of the year-to-date loss in stock prices. It remains to be seen how long this rally will last, but there have been a couple of positive developments, despite a palpable slowing in economic growth.
Today the employment data for the month of June was released and was stronger than analysts’ expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000 in the month of June, well above the estimate of 265,000. In addition, average hourly earnings growth moderated on a month-to-month basis, which should help the inflationary pressures in the economy.
Read our Market Letter publication for the third quarter 2022 titled, Balancing Act, in which George Hosfield, CFA, Dean Dordevic and Brad Houle, CFA, share our thoughts on inflation, interest rates, recession risk and how to position portfolios in this environment.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
While it was a relatively quiet week of macroeconomic news, investors are still busy making sense of the inflation and interest rate paradox: that is, inflation stoking recession fears, but also rising rates to combat inflation also stoking recession fears.
Investors buffeted by the ongoing correction in stocks and bonds could be forgiven for asking this question. The Fed’s aggressive half a percentage point increase in interest rates last week coupled with another report of elevated inflation earlier this week are serving to continue the turbulence investors have experienced so far this year.
On Tuesday, inflation numbers came in hot across most components. According to the release of March inflation figures, consumer prices have risen by 8.5% over the past year and 1.24% month-over-month, a rate of increase not seen in more than 40 years.
The second quarter 2022 issue of Market Letter, our quarterly investment publication, titled, Kryptonite.
With an eventful first quarter now in the history books, we can safely say that the elevated levels of volatility that we predicted for 2022 are now in play.
While news coverage is understandably focused on the devastation in Ukraine, we remain keenly focused on the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and the companies we follow. We realize that during times of stress markets become disconnected from the underlying fundamentals of the economy, but just like water always finds its equilibrium, markets similarly return to the fundamentals.
The Federal Reserve has maintained near-zero interest rates for nearly two years, and by now, it is clear this extraordinary policy is no longer needed. Over the last several months, continued elevated inflation readings, coupled with a tightening labor market, have led the Fed to suggest rate hikes are coming both sooner and faster than previously expected.
A key economic data point this week was a flashback to the 1960s with initial unemployment claims at 198,000, which are levels we haven’t seen since that decade.
