While news coverage is understandably focused on the devastation in Ukraine, we remain keenly focused on the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and the companies we follow. We realize that during times of stress markets become disconnected from the underlying fundamentals of the economy, but just like water always finds its equilibrium, markets similarly return to the fundamentals. Today’s jobs report, and earnings reports from Costco and Broadcom, signaled that the U.S. economy entered the Russia/Ukraine crisis on solid economic footing.
Jobs Report
Each month the Bureau of Labor and Statistics come up with the number of jobs added or lost in the prior month. Along with the number of jobs, they include an array of information about income, participation rates and unemployment. The U.S. economy added 678,000 jobs during the month of February, and revised prior months higher. Below are the incredibly consistent job growth numbers for the past 12 months.
Additional good news out of the report were continuing rising salaries and people returning to the labor market. We were expecting the participation rate to increase as the Omicron variant dissipates across the U.S., and this is now occurring.
What Do Companies Say?
Two very different companies released their earnings reports yesterday, Costco Wholesale and Broadcom. Costco reported sales, excluding fuel and currency, were up 11.1% over the year prior period. The company beat analysts’ estimates on both revenues and earnings, despite high labor costs, container delays and chip shortages. The other company that reported yesterday was Broadcom, a chip company whose end markets include handsets and cloud computing, which makes it a good proxy for business spending. They reported revenues and earnings that beat analysts’ estimates and an increased back log of orders of $25 billion, up from $22 billion the quarter before. It appears supply chain issues are loosening up and demand remains robust. It is clear that both the consumer and businesses remain in good shape to keep spending money.
Takeaways for the Week:
We will remain keenly focused on the fundamentals of the U.S. economy, as the war in Ukraine increases oil prices and global uncertainty
We expect volatility to remain elevated for the foreseeable future