George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
As we move further into 2024, the commercial real estate (CRE) market continues to attract investors’ attention. Often, when the Federal Reserve increases short-term interest rates rapidly, as in this cycle, some aspect of the capital markets or asset class breaks. CRE is the primary suspect for a crisis in this cycle.
Remember "2023: The Year of the Hard Landing"? That was the dreary refrain echoing through late 2022, with recession fears dominating headlines and investment strategies. Fast forward to today, and the picture couldn't be more different.
The final data points of 2023 are trickling in, and investors are using this information to inform their opinions on what is expected in 2024. Starting this month, we have begun to share our 2024 Investment Outlook with clients and professional partners – we look forward to having the opportunity to be together and celebrate what’s to come.
That a notable Silicon Valley bank failure could overshadow significant developments in the labor market is a testament to how attuned investors remain to the unpredictable consequences of the Fed’s ongoing campaign to raise interest rates.
One topic we are consistently asked about is the risk of another housing crisis. Housing is clearly softening in the wake of the increases in interest rates, causing mortgage rates to climb sharply this year and making home ownership unaffordable for many Americans.
It has been a very challenging year for the capital markets. Not only have stocks entered a bear market, but bonds are on pace to have their worst return in more than a century. Typically, bonds have a negative correlation with stocks, and, as such, tend to have strong returns when stocks decline. However, this is the first time in 52 years that stocks and bonds fell in the same year.
Our initial U.S. economic outlook has generally played out as expected this year: continued (albeit slower) economic growth, persistent inflation, interest rate hikes and increased market volatility. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was an unexpected significant development that further elevated market volatility and dampened the global economic outlook.
It would appear that the alternative investment industry has the complete focus of the SEC, and it is not hard to see why. Attracted by the high return potential and uncorrelated nature of many alternatives, sophisticated investors from significant pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, family offices and high-net-worth individuals have significantly increased allocations to the asset class over the last few decades.
Santa Claus came in the waning days of December and brought his namesake rally. But as the calendar turned, Santa left, and the markets started the year with a stumble.
“Are we there yet?” is a familiar back seat refrain that often occurs during long, summertime road trips involving bored children and their beleaguered parents. As we transition through our second COVID-affected summer, this frustration is also felt by investors and other market participants who long for some return to “normal.” Surely, we must all be there by now, right?
We are beginning to see the end of the pandemic as U.S. vaccine distribution begins this week. In addition, our research partner, Evercore ISI Research, is projecting that 100 million people will be vaccinated by end of the first quarter. Along with this victory comes predictions for the unfolding outcome for post-pandemic commercial real estate. The big debate centers around the persistence of the “work from home” trend permanently impacting demand for office space.
While retail investors continue to be focused on negative media headlines, stocks continue to climb the “wall of worry.”
The aggressive fiscal and monetary response to the COVID-19 crisis has been unprecedented in terms of speed and magnitude. A common topic we receive from clients is about the risk of inflation as a result of the response to the crisis.
Economic signals indicate that the recovery has begun around the world. As expected, China has been the first to emerge from recession, and their economy is moving forward.
This morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released unemployment statistics capturing the full effects of shelter-in-place mandates: in April, over 20 million jobs were lost, the highest monthly loss on record. This resulted in an unemployment rate of 14.7 percent, the highest since the Great Depression when unemployment was above 25 percent.
As investors turn their calendars to 2020, we reflect on the previous decade in this holiday-shortened trading week.
On October 29, 2018, Indonesia’s Lion Air Flight 610 crashed 13 minutes after takeoff. Months later in March of this year, Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 suffered a similar fate. Both flights were flown using Boeing’s much heralded new airplane, the 737-MAX or “MAX.”
This weekend, millions of college basketball fans will start filling out their NCAA tournament brackets. The period during this “distraction” can be economically meaningful to corporate America: it is estimated that, due to lost productivity, companies will lose a combined $6.3 billion.
News broke this week that the Trump administration would consider bypassing congressional legislation to change the capital gains taxes rules to index for inflation. The current strategy that is being floated is to use the Treasury department and IRS rather than traditional legislation to redefine capital gains to include only returns in excess of inflation.
