George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
On Friday, stock and bond investors wrestled with conflicting conclusions from jobs reports. Two surveys report jobs data: the payroll survey and the household survey. The payroll survey showed a gain of 272,000 new jobs. However, the household survey showed a loss of jobs and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.0%.
This week, yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to their highest level since 2007. Earlier this spring, market stress linked to the banking sector led safe-haven buyers to the safety of U.S. Treasuries, and the 10-year Treasury hit a year-to-date low of 3.30% in early April.
On Wednesday, days before the U.S. is projected to run out of money to pay its bills, the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 in a bipartisan effort. The final vote of 314- 177 received support from 149 Republicans and 165 Democrats. With both sides making concessions, it’s not surprising to see members of each party voicing their displeasure with the deal.
President Biden held his State of the Union Address this week, and while there was a laundry list of proposals, the two that we believe are on investors’ minds are the debt ceiling and the Medicare drug price negotiation.
This week, volatility returned to capital markets due to the recent emergence of the Omicron variant. Initial reports indicate Omicron shows increased transmissibility and mild symptoms, a “mixed bag” of changes over Delta. And while it will be several weeks before we see a more accurate picture of its impact on human health, capital markets immediately responded with increased stock market volatility and lower interest rates.
As investors, it’s important to have a view of the world and what you think the economy is going to do in the coming months and years. This informs all investment decisions from which stocks to purchase to which asset classes to over-or-underweight.
Earlier this month in an interview with 60 Minutes, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated he believed the U.S. economy “seems to be at an inflection point” due to widespread vaccinations and previously enacted stimulus measures. He added his expectation that the economy would begin to grow “much more quickly” and that the pace of job creation would accelerate.
On Tuesday this week, inflation data as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of March was reported at 2.6 percent. This year-over-year inflation reading was significantly higher than it had been trending over the past few months.
Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report spotlighted the difference between Wall Street and Main Street. The net loss of 140,000 jobs in December, driven by the loss of 372,000 restaurants and bar workers, was balanced by the increasing employment in other sectors of the economy, notably the manufacturing sector. These sectors continue to heal from the wrenching effects of the pandemic that took hold in last year’s first quarter.
We have been closely monitoring the recent uptick in COVID-19 infections across the country and in Europe. The path of the virus is the most important factor in the economic recovery and the thing that we know the least about.
Looking back on the first six months of fixed income performance this year reveals a stark tale of two strikingly different quarters.
Following a stimulus-induced surge from March lows, blue-chip stocks that had mounted over a 30-percent advance have consolidated gains so far in May.
A mixed set of economic data set against ongoing news of coronavirus infections sent stocks and bonds in opposite directions. As quarantines and lost production in China begin to impact supply chains and the likes of Apple, bonds continued their long tenured ascent, helping offset the week’s equity losses for those investors with a well-diversified portfolio.
Negative interest rates have been in the news this year and have been the source of questions from clients. Negative Interest rates are an extraordinarily unusual phenomenon where an investor pays for the “privilege” of loaning a country money.
As we close out another Thanksgiving week, investors have a lot to be thankful for this year. At this time last year, the Fed was still raising interest rates, global economies were slowing and the S&P 500 was on its way to a negative 13.5 percent return for the fourth quarter.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced this week that the central bank will once again be purchasing U.S. Treasury securities, reversing the recent trend of allowing its balance sheet to shrink. Immediately, many market participants experienced déjà vu, recalling the first time this monetary policy tool was implemented in 2008.
On Wednesday at midday, the global financial media held their collective breath as the benchmark U.S. Treasury Yield Spread (2-year/10-year yield) inverted. Then, as they exhaled, minor hysteria ensued.
With a week subdued by a day of mourning, traders hoped market volatility would follow suit: it did not. In less than three trading sessions the S&P 500 traded down five percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 1,400 points and small cap stocks lost 6 percent.
Global markets sold off sharply on Wednesday and Thursday as investors continued to wrestle with a diverse set of risks.
U.S. investors who enjoyed strong fourth quarter equity returns were dealt a change in market landscape this week. While history has demonstrated a low correlation between equities and U.S. government bonds – exactly the reason why Treasuries are such an important diversifier of equity risk -- this week proved to be an exception. Stock and bond prices both fell following news that the U.S. and Canada had reached agreement about modifying trade terms in North America.
