Winners & Losers
Following a stimulus-induced surge from March lows, blue-chip stocks that had mounted over a 30-percent advance have consolidated gains so far in May. With U.S. banks buttressed by strong balance sheets but challenged to gauge the extent of pandemic-induced loan losses amid near-zero short-term rates, the financial sector overall has been one of the market’s worst performers this year. The energy sector has also lagged despite the recent doubling of oil prices off historic lows. What remains in the leadership vanguard are growth stocks in the technology and healthcare sectors, which were aided this week by encouraging results out of Cisco. Despite an S&P 500 down 11 percent year-to-date, technology stocks are now in the plus column, with healthcare not far behind. Meanwhile, the ongoing Quantitative Easing (QE) from the Fed continues and this week they began buying investment-grade corporate bonds which leaves the long-end of the Treasury curve well bid, resulting in the benchmark 10-year finishing the week to yield a mere 0.65 percent. With dis-inflation in place and growth hard to find, long-duration assets continue to outperform.
Internet Retailing Looms Large
Predictably, bad economic data for April hit the tape this week, as investors digested the steepest ever month-to-month declines in both U.S. consumer prices and industrial production. But perhaps the most remarkable report was today’s retail sales tally for April, which revealed a sharper-than-expected 16 percent decline … this not from year-ago levels but rather in comparison to just one month earlier. Given the economic lockdown, the numbers are shocking, but not surprising. What we find notable is the right-hand portion of the chart below that portrays the recent rise in non-store (online) retailing.
Stay-at-home orders that are just now being lifted may dampen the gains that Amazon and mixed-channel retailers are enjoying. But post-lockdown internet retail is likely to retain notable portions of its recent market share gains, potentially doubling in the years ahead. The chart below shows that non-store retailing has steadily gained market share over the last decade as mall-based department store retailing has faded.
Market Share Winners
While Amazon has clearly led the online sales charge, select “off-price” retailers like TJ Maxx, Ross Stores and Burlington Stores have also thrived at the expense of the JC Penneys, Macys and other classic department stores of the world. These retailers have excelled by offering an eclectic mix of value-priced, brand-name merchandise to customers who don’t know what they will find until they shop at the store. Successful execution of this “treasure-hunt” retail model has been a big part of Costco’s success as well. Post-pandemic, we believe we will see retail sales continuing to grow in both channels. More immediately, the off-price retailers are likely to be advantaged by the forced liquidation of excess inventories from bankrupt bricks-and-mortar retailers like Lord & Taylor, J Crew, and Neiman Marcus.
Retailers on Deck
The next round of first quarter earnings next week, will be the likes of TJ Maxx, Home Depot, Target and Wal-Mart. With 90 percent of the S&P 500 having already delivered their quarterly numbers, we observed the first evidence of COVID-19 impacting corporate results, with overall earnings declining about 14 percent in the March quarter. Earnings stand to dip the most in Q2, to likely be followed by recovery thereafter.
Our Takeaways for the Week
Stocks are taking a breather from the heady gains realized in April’s rebound
Online retail continues to take market share from traditional bricks-and-mortar