by Brad Houle, CFA
Executive Vice President
We have been closely monitoring the recent uptick in COVID-19 infections across the country and in Europe. The path of the virus is the most important factor in the economic recovery and the thing that we know the least about. As we are certainly not epidemiologists, we are mindful of the COVID trends, yet focus on the underlying economic data that ultimately determines the direction of capital markets. The economy has broadly reopened, and economic activity continues to accelerate by any measure. Our view is that the response to the increased rate of infection will be met with greater localized restrictions on activity as opposed to a more draconian coast-to-coast lockdown which proved to be a blunt instrument in an attempt to control the virus. Even the new national restrictions announced in France and Germany are far less severe than the initial activity restrictions imposed this spring.
For evidence of the degree to which the economy has reopened, you need to look no further than yesterday’s record third quarter GDP growth. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is a measure of the national income; this quarter it increased at a gain of 7.4 percent which is 33.1 percent on an annualized basis. Leading the growth was personal spending, which increased at a greater-than-40 percent annualized pace with business investment and housing spending also increasing sharply. While this GDP growth was greater than expected, total GDP is still 3.5 percent below its pre-pandemic peak.
While the shortest and steepest recession in history is now over, we believe the pace of economy growth will slow in the coming quarters. For the fourth quarter, the GDP is expected to grow 4.5 percent according to a Capital Economics estimate. Regardless of the outcome of the election next week, there is an expectation that Congress will act to provide further fiscal stimulus, with the majority directed into the hands of the 7.9 percent of the country that is currently unemployed.
Consumer spending makes up 70 percent of our economy and has recovered from the depths of the recession this spring. Retail sales have not only recovered, but have reached a new high, and has been accompanied by a strong housing market. All aspects of the housing market have been robust: new home sales, existing home sales and the remodel market. We believe this trend is driven by record-low mortgage rates and the extended time at home which has caused many Americans to evaluate how and where they want to live. In many cities, the unsold inventory of homes is starting to dwindle, and bidding wars are becoming common in many areas. Buying a home takes tremendous consumer confidence in one's financial and employment situation. This consumer confidence bodes well for the durability of the economic recovery.
For the week, the S&P 500 declined by more than 6 percent, driven lower by fear of the uptick in COVID-19 infections, concerns over a contested election and weakness in technology earnings. From the high on September 2 of this year, the S&P 500 has corrected nearly 8 percent. Interest rates remain range-bound with the 10-year U.S. Treasury finishing the week at .86 percent.
Takeaways for the Week
Despite the sharp increase in COVID-19 infections, economic data continues to be strong with the economy broadly reopened and recovering faster than expected
Our view is that the increased infection rate will be met with localized restrictions on activity rather than a coast-to-coast lockdown