George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
Our 2022 Investment Outlook features the Superman and Clark Kent theme, a metaphor referencing past extraordinary economic stimulus provided by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the supercharged earnings growth that served as a key tailwind for stocks last year.
A year ago, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell famously said, “We’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.” At this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting the Fed took its first tangible steps to lay the groundwork for a gradual removal of the stimulus measures enacted last year.
Twelve months ago, investors were in a state of sheer panic as they were witnessing stocks freefall by over 30 percent.
This week marks the one-year anniversary of the World Health Organization declaring the COVID-19 virus a pandemic. Since then, we have seen the largest economy in the world locked down, a massive spike in unemployment and the shortest economic recession on record, quickly followed by double-digit GDP growth.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in testimony to Congress last week said that the increase in Treasury bond yields is a "statement of confidence" in a robust economic outlook.
On the back of the strongest election week returns since 1932, markets rallied sharply to begin this week as Pfizer announced 90 percent efficacy on a COVID-19 vaccine. Even more, the industries performing best were those most sensitive to economic momentum, instead of the “stay-at-home” trade that has dominated the market for the majority of the year with Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Google accounting for around 80 percent of the S&P 500 return.
When the Federal Reserve cut their overnight policy rate by a total of 2.0 percent to the zero bound in the fourth quarter of 2008, few investors would have anticipated it would be another seven years before the Fed felt economic conditions warranted raising that policy rate by even one-quarter percent.
Each week our Investment Policy Committee meets to review asset allocation and our outlook for the economy and global markets. We have a standard book of economic charts that we review to determine the health of the economy and what is transpiring around the world and many of these indicators go back decades.
Without question, 2020 has brought about not only a steep, yet short-lived, recession, but also a material change in consumer preferences and behavior.
Wednesday, April 22, is the 50th anniversary of Earth Day. In 1970, U.S. Senator Gaylord Nelson and activist Denis Hayes launched a nationwide environmental “teach-in” that later became Earth Day. Although the pandemic may have disrupted plans for this milestone anniversary, if Senator Nelson were alive today, he would find emerging business practices of interest.
Last week marked the semi-sesquicentennial anniversary of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s death which sparked many to compare our current financial markets to the Great Depression. As the stock market continues its rapid ascent for a second week and pundits start talking about the shape of the recovery, there is one lesson some overlook from the Depression era — the value of FDR’s fireside chats. During these chats, the president used simple, direct language to convey very difficult news; a format we are keeping in mind.
