Each week our Investment Policy Committee meets to review asset allocation and our outlook for the economy and global markets. We have a standard book of economic charts that we review to determine the health of the economy and what is transpiring around the world and many of these indicators go back decades. A common phrase has been repeated in our business since the beginning of the pandemic, that is, “we’re going to have to omit this period for comparison purposes.” Terms like “unprecedented” are thrown around too often today, but the effects of the pandemic-induced shut down truly are unprecedented.
Below is a chart of continued claims for unemployment. The data goes back to 1967, and the prior record for continuing claims was 6.5 million people at the height of the great recession. In May of this year the number hit 25 million - nearly 4x the prior dismal record.
Yet, there is reason for optimism. The healing process has been much faster this time around as economies have slowly reopened and we have learned more about the disease. The chart below from Goldman Sachs is about a month old but starts to capture some of the truths about this economic recovery. As you can see, most of the job losses this cycle have been concentrated in the entertainment and leisure areas, especially restaurants and bars. Once we have a vaccine, or wide availability of proper treatments, we believe these sectors and jobs will come back rather quickly. We believe there is enormous pent-up demand for leisure travel and dining out.
In no way do we want to diminish the damage the shutdown has caused to our service economy and realize that these tolls will be felt for a long time to come. We do believe another round of targeted stimulus for those out of work is warranted at this time and hope our policy makers can come to some sort of agreement soon. Until that time and after, please support your local restaurants and businesses.
Week in Review and Our Takeaways:
Our employment picture continues to heal from the pandemic shutdown
Stocks gyrated this week on the ongoing negotiations for additional stimulus, but finished the week up almost 4 percent