Annual presentation from Ferguson Wellman sharing our views for the year regarding the global economy and capital markets, as well as a planning update from our wealth management team.
2025 Investment Outlook Webinar Video: Lessons Learned
Putting the ‘Income’ Back in Fixed Income
With the Federal Reserve taking a ‘higher-for-longer’ approach to interest rates, bond yields are higher than what the market expected at the start of the year.
Mega-Cap Earnings in Focus
The U.S. stock market saw a rebound the last couple of weeks, breaking the prior three-week losing streak. The S&P 500 gains were driven by mega-cap names due in large part to their recent earnings results which exceeded investors’ expectations.
What Goes Up, Must Come Down ... Eventually
This week investors shrugged off hotter-than-expected inflation data, one of the most important data inputs for the Fed in deciding its next policy moves. The impact of the Fed aggressively raising rates over the past year has brought inflation down from a whopping 9% in June 2022 to 3% by the end of 2023. The Fed’s ultimate target is 2%. Much like updating a computer, the last bit sometimes takes the longest.
Productivity = Prosperity
By March, our feelings of excitement for a new year have generally worn off and we have settled into our winter routines. The hope of an early spring and longer days are normally what carries us through the season, but this year, more excitement is brewing.
2024 Investment Outlook Webinar Video: Sticking the Landing
Annual presentation from Ferguson Wellman sharing our views for the year regarding the global economy and capital markets, as well as a planning update from our wealth management team.
Fourth Quarter 2023 Market Letter: Inflation's Flame Flickers
Presenting our fourth quarter 2023 publication of Market Letter titled, “Inflation’s Flame Flickers.”
Dog Days of Summer
Having already digested 90% of the S&P 500’s second quarter results, investors this week parsed earnings for the major retailers still left to report. Despite the likes of Home Depot and Wal-Mart continuing the recent trend of companies delivering better-than-expected earnings, the recent rise in longer-term bond yields is dampening investors’ enthusiasm for stocks.
The Recession Expectation Conundrum
The U.S. economy continues to defy one of the most anticipated recessions. Since January, investors and economists have been on edge as economic indicators started flashing red, particularly the purchasing managers index (PMI) and the leading economic indicators (LEI). Both metrics are closely watched as they have been reliable in foretelling downturns.
Third Quarter 2023 Investment Strategy Video: Standing Eight Count
Manic Frustration
Over the last 18 months we have seen the tale of two markets. Looking at returns through June, large-cap growth stocks have driven returns resulting in the S&P 500 returning just under 17%. However, a slice of the market which is lagging meaningfully is dividend-paying stocks. Looking at a basket of dividend ETFs through June, returns are a paltry -2%.
Third Quarter 2023 Market Letter: Standing Eight Count
Gradual, Then Suddenly
“How do you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” -Ernest Hemingway
As of this writing, there are expectations that First Republic Bank may not survive the weekend. However, we believe that First Republic’s issues are not systemic across the industry. Unlike 2008, these issues with First Republic, as they were with Silicon Valley Bank, are not credit related. Rather, it was the issues that were part of their business model, which played out as Hemingway stated in “The Sun Also Rises.”
Recording: Mid-Year Economic Outlook Webinar with Portland and Puget Sound Business Journals
Ferguson Wellman presents its mid-year investment outlook in partnership with the Portland and Puget Sound Business Journals. Originally aired July 13, 2022.
Dry Powder
U.S. markets have begun the third quarter with positive returns, erasing some of the losses that occurred in the first half of the year. Specifically, the market has recouped about one-fourth of the year-to-date loss in stock prices. It remains to be seen how long this rally will last, but there have been a couple of positive developments, despite a palpable slowing in economic growth.
Third Quarter 2022 Market Letter: Balancing Act
Read our Market Letter publication for the third quarter 2022 titled, Balancing Act, in which George Hosfield, CFA, Dean Dordevic and Brad Houle, CFA, share our thoughts on inflation, interest rates, recession risk and how to position portfolios in this environment.
Third Quarter 2022 Investment Strategy Video: Balancing Act
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
The Calm after the Storm
While it was a relatively quiet week of macroeconomic news, investors are still busy making sense of the inflation and interest rate paradox: that is, inflation stoking recession fears, but also rising rates to combat inflation also stoking recession fears.
Shifting Demand
As new parents, my wife and I have been experiencing the ongoing formula shortage firsthand as we prepare for our little one to start daycare in June. The search for formula reminds me of the early days of the pandemic when life turned into a competitive “treasure hunt” due to supply constraints and a drastic change in consumer demand.
Tug of War
Investors buffeted by the ongoing correction in stocks and bonds could be forgiven for asking this question. The Fed’s aggressive half a percentage point increase in interest rates last week coupled with another report of elevated inflation earlier this week are serving to continue the turbulence investors have experienced so far this year.