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Investment Strategy Video, Our Investment Views, To Coin a Phrase
Emilie Ma
Investment Strategy Video: Inflation's Flame ...

George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.

Investment Strategy Video: Inflation's Flame Flickers
Investment Strategy Video, Our Investment Views, To Coin a Phrase
Liz Swagerty Olsen
Investment Strategy Video: Stalemate

George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.

Investment Strategy Video: Stalemate
Our Investment Views
Liz Swagerty Olsen
Third Quarter 2022 Investment Strategy Video: ...

Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”

Third Quarter 2022 Investment Strategy Video: Balancing Act
Annual Report
Mary Faulkner
2021 Annual Report

2021 Annual Report

2021 Annual Report
Wealth Management
Liz Swagerty Olsen
First Quarter 2022 Wealth Management Insights ...

Mary Lago, CFP®, CTFA, discusses the theme for the first quarter of 2022, “Valuing the Resources of Time and Money.”

First Quarter 2022 Wealth Management Insights Video: Valuing the Resources of Time and Money

Weekly Market Makers

Why Does Everything Feel So Expensive?

Why Does Everything Feel So Expensive?

Last weekend, as my kids played in the park, a fellow dad struck up a conversation. During our talk, he sighed and asked, "Everything feels so expensive these days, doesn't it?" I’ve heard this sentiment frequently, from friends, family and clients who have expressed curiosity about the rising costs of everyday goods and services. While many individuals are feeling the strain on their finances, inflation measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), appear to be trending downward, showing a rosier economic picture. So why are people feeling the pinch?

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Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

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Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

The first three weeks of the second quarter have been tough for both equity and bond investors. After a great start to the year, there hasn't been any place for investors to hide in April. The chart below highlights that the three major equity classes, as well as bonds, have all posted negative returns, with Small Caps now down close to 4% for the year. 

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Is 3% the New 2%?

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Is 3% the New 2%?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of goods and services prices across the economy, and a popular gauge of inflation. The headline CPI rose 3.5% in March from a year earlier, which was higher than economists had forecast and an increase from February’s 3.2% reading. The Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, also rose more than expected, with medical care and auto insurance boosting the non-housing service prices.

Commercial is not 2008 Residential

Commercial is not 2008 Residential

As we move further into 2024, the commercial real estate (CRE) market continues to attract investors’ attention. Often, when the Federal Reserve increases short-term interest rates rapidly, as in this cycle, some aspect of the capital markets or asset class breaks. CRE is the primary suspect for a crisis in this cycle.

A Good Year In a Few Months: The U.S. Stock Market's Remarkable Rally

A Good Year In a Few Months: The U.S. Stock Market's Remarkable Rally

During the decade I spent in San Francisco, I had the pleasure of working with a great economist and investor from 2015 to 2019. Those years proved formative for my investing career, and I learned much from my time there. Recently, I have been reminded of an adage of his. After a short period of strong performance, he would exclaim, “We had a good year this month!”, meaning the portfolio returned what we considered a good year's worth of returns in a fraction of the time. Given the robust performance of the stock market over the last several months, I have been reminded of this saying more than a few times.  

The End of an Era

The End of an Era

Would you have believed us if we had told you on January 1 that the S&P 500 would be up nearly 10% year-to-date after last year’s 25% jump?

What Goes Up, Must Come Down ... Eventually

What Goes Up, Must Come Down ... Eventually

This week investors shrugged off hotter-than-expected inflation data, one of the most important data inputs for the Fed in deciding its next policy moves. The impact of the Fed aggressively raising rates over the past year has brought inflation down from a whopping 9% in June 2022 to 3% by the end of 2023. The Fed’s ultimate target is 2%. Much like updating a computer, the last bit sometimes takes the longest.

S is for Shrinkflation

S is for Shrinkflation

Over the last month, the term Shrinkflation has become more popular in the media. The term was broached by President Biden during a Super Bowl interview earlier this year, but has been gaining traction more recently (see chart below on Google search trends) due to a proposed bill in Congress, as well as Sesame Street’s Cookie Monster complaining on X (formerly Twitter). 

Productivity = Prosperity

Productivity = Prosperity

By March, our feelings of excitement for a new year have generally worn off and we have settled into our winter routines. The hope of an early spring and longer days are normally what carries us through the season, but this year, more excitement is brewing.

Do Trees Grow to the Sky?

Do Trees Grow to the Sky?

The most prominent news for the markets this week came from semiconductor company Nvidia, as they announced their most recent earnings. Nvidia is at the tip of the spear for the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence investing. The company’s dominant market share in the chips used to train artificial intelligence models and build out artificial intelligence infrastructure has driven exorbitant growth for the company in the last couple of years.

The Last Mile

The Last Mile

Over the last two months, our investment team has been privileged to meet with many of our clients and professional partners as we’ve delivered our annual Investment Outlook presentation.

”Is It Over Now?”

”Is It Over Now?”

Over the last several weeks, company layoffs have been in the headlines, specifically in the technology sector.

Just More of It

Just More of It

It was an action-packed week in the capital markets headlined by the Federal Reserve’s first meeting of 2024. The central bank decided to leave their benchmark interest rate unchanged at a 23-year high – a level at which it has been since July of last year.

Unexpected Bounce: U.S. GDP Defies Gravity

Unexpected Bounce: U.S. GDP Defies Gravity

Remember "2023: The Year of the Hard Landing"? That was the dreary refrain echoing through late 2022, with recession fears dominating headlines and investment strategies. Fast forward to today, and the picture couldn't be more different.

Strong Start

Strong Start

The final data points of 2023 are trickling in, and investors are using this information to inform their opinions on what is expected in 2024. Starting this month, we have begun to share our 2024 Investment Outlook with clients and professional partners – we look forward to having the opportunity to be together and celebrate what’s to come.

What's Next for Interest Rates?

What's Next for Interest Rates?

One irony from the bond market in 2023 was that the year started with near unanimous calls for a recession, finished with an over 20% return for the S&P500 and consensus for a soft landing, yet the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury ended the year right where it started at 3.88%.

Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

All investor eyes were on the jobs report today and per usual, the economic data did—and did not—disappoint. The most recent report outpaced expectations, with 216,000 more jobs created in December compared to the estimate of 170,000.

Reflections

Reflections

As we wrap up 2023, we always like to look back on the year in the markets and put the last 12 months in perspective. In December 2022, the S&P 500 had just finished an 8% rally from the October lows. With stocks still down close to 20% for the year, the outlook for 2023 looked bleak as forecasts by economists were overwhelmingly skewed toward recession.

Holiday Jubilation

Holiday Jubilation

The Santa Claus Rally arrived early this year as investors’ wish for a pivot in Federal Reserve policy appears to be all but granted. After peaking at 9.1% in June of 2022, inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), now stands at 3.1% with increases in the price of gasoline, apparel and food materially lower.

Crystal Ball or Magic 8 Ball?

Crystal Ball or Magic 8 Ball?

It’s the holidays; for many, it is a time to reconnect with loved ones, share meals, exchange gifts and create memories that will last a lifetime. For those of us in the investment industry, it also means our news feed will be inundated with every research analyst, economist, strategist and personality on CNBC making predictions for the year ahead.