by Alex Harding, CFA
Vice President
Equity Research and Portfolio Management
It was an action-packed week in the capital markets headlined by the Federal Reserve’s first meeting of 2024. The central bank decided to leave their benchmark interest rate unchanged at a 23-year high – a level at which it has been since July of last year. Stocks sold off on the news as investors’ hopes for a March rate cut were all but crushed during Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. While stocks retreated on the day of the announcement, the most interesting thing may be what happened in the bond market. Instead of yields moving higher, longer-term interest rates dropped as investors remained at odds with the Fed’s narrative.
Over the past two years, the Fed has significantly tightened monetary policy to restore price stability. Their strong actions have moved the policy rate well into restrictive territory. While interest rate-sensitive sectors (i.e. housing) have been impacted, overall economic activity has been resilient. During the press conference, Powell acknowledged the progress inflation has made towards their 2% goal over the past six months. However, the committee remains data-dependent until they are confident the sharp downturn in inflation is lasting and will endure. Responding to a reporter’s question on what ‘greater confidence’ means to the Fed, Powell provided the following, “We want to see more good data. It's not that we're looking for better data. We're looking at continuation of the good data that we've been seeing, and a good example is inflation.”
Regardless of the timing of the first interest rate cut, we believe rates have peaked this economic cycle and the Fed will ‘stick the landing.’ A key pillar to our thesis is the labor market. Available job openings, while elevated, are declining without causing a spike in unemployment. This week, the Employment Cost Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of wage inflation, saw its smallest quarterly increase in more than two years. In addition, the rate at which employees are quitting has dropped below pre-pandemic levels – another sign wage pressures are easing for corporate America.
Supporting the Fed’s wait-and-see approach to rate cuts, hiring boomed in January. On Friday, the January jobs report was released with the economy adding 353,000 jobs versus economists’ estimate of 180,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, sitting right around 50-year lows. In response, bond yields surged and expectations for the number of rate cuts fell from six to five. Looking ahead, the Fed will have the chance to see “more good data” with the release of two inflation reports between now and their next meeting in March.
Takeaways for the Week
The Fed held their target short-term interest rate steady this week and signaled they need more evidence inflation is well-anchored before rate cuts can begin
The labor market remains strong as 353,000 jobs were added in January
The S&P 500 sold off on the day of the Fed announcement but rallied to finish the week at a new all-time high due to strong earnings reports from Amazon and Meta