George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have signaled they will be cutting the benchmark federal funds rate at the end of this month. This will be their first interest rate cut since December 2008.
As the second quarter came roaring to a close, stocks marched consistently higher while bond yields moved drastically lower. Those trends continued the first week of July, but it is doubtful that they can continue in unison much longer. Either the economy stabilizes and rates stop falling, or the stock market will inevitably take a break from this rise higher.
The Roman poet Marcus Manilius, proposed author of Astronomica, the earliest work describing astrology, characterized the sign Libra as “the sign in which the seasons are balanced.” Last week, Facebook announced that Libra is now the moniker for its new blockchain-based payment system.
Veruca Salt was a character in the novel and film Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Her character was the greediest, most spoiled child of all the children that received a “Golden Ticket” and had the opportunity to tour the Wonka Chocolate Factory
Investors anticipating Fed rate cuts in the months ahead have become inversely sensitized to economic news supporting continued economic expansion. Last week’s surprisingly tepid payroll report and today’s reassuring read on U.S. retail sales resulted in opposing stock price reactions.
After a huge run to start the year, equity markets declined throughout May as trade tensions re-escalated and fears of slowing economic growth came back into focus. This week, equity markets moved sharply higher with the S&P 500 closing within 2.5 percent of its all-time high.
As May draws to a close, equity investors were not treated well. Concerns over a slowing economy and heightening trade tensions with China weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 fell over 6 percent for the month, which is the first negative month of May since 2012.
We have continued to closely monitor economic indicators for tariff-related impacts on business confidence but up to now it didn’t seem to have affected sentiment. However, that narrative seems to be changing, and we expect the administration will take note.
Last week, the unblemished veneer of the year-to-date equity market showed a crack. After a 24 percent rally, the S&P 500 set a new high and then sold off 5 percent shaking some investors’ confidence.
As first quarter reporting season draws to another constructive close, investors’ attention was ripped away from the earnings scorecard and refocused almost exclusively on trade.
It’s the tail-end of the first quarter of 2019 earnings reporting season and the results have been better than expected. While corporate earnings growth was up 22 percent in 2018 due in part to tax cuts, this year those same cuts will provide limited benefits and corporate earnings growth is expected to only be up around 5 percent for the full-year 2019.
Although tariffs and trade disputes have been front and center in the news, their impact may not yet be felt by U.S. consumers. If you’ve purchased a washer and dryer recently, it’s likely that you now have firsthand and inadvertent experience bearing their cost.
While the broad market finished the holiday-shortened week positive, healthcare investors weren’t as fortunate. Continued chatter regarding “Medicare for All” as well as a Health and Human Services proposal to ban drug rebates for Medicare are weighing on the sector.
April 15 a.k.a. Tax Day for the United States, is fast approaching. As we near the finish line, many Americans are already seeing the impact; the IRS reported in congressional testimony earlier this month that they have issued 2.2 percent fewer refunds compared to the same time last year.
