Carkin, Faulkner and Krys-Rusoff Invited to Buy More Company Stock

PORTLAND, Ore. – June 10, 2014 – Ferguson Wellman Capital Management recently invited three professionals to purchase additional company shares. Tim Carkin, CAIA, CMT, Mary Faulkner and Deidra Krys-Rusoff accepted the offer, increasing their ownership stake in Ferguson Wellman. Carkin has been with the firm since 2003 and currently heads Ferguson Wellman’s trading and operations departments. Faulkner joined Ferguson Wellman in 2006 and leads the firm’s branding and communications efforts. Krys-Rusoff, who recently celebrated 10 years with Ferguson Wellman, oversees the firm’s municipal bond strategy for client portfolios.

“Tim, Mary and Deidra have all grown the positions they were in when they were first hired,” says Steve Holwerda, CFA, principal and chief operating officer. “We are a better company today because of what they have accomplished in their work.”

In addition to their responsibilities at Ferguson Wellman, these senior vice presidents serve in leadership roles with various organizations in the community. Krys-Rusoff chairs the Oregon Zoo Bond Oversight Committee and is a board member of the YMCA’s Southeast Regional Childcare Council. Faulkner chairs the Lone Fir Cemetery Foundation board, serves on the honorary council for Portland State’s Center for Women’s Leadership and is on the community outreach committee for All Saints School. Carkin is a board member of the Education Recreational Adventures and Oregon Council on Economic Education. He also chairs the Sherwood Budget Committee.

Founded in 1975, Ferguson Wellman Capital Management is a privately owned registered investment adviser that serves more than 650 clients with assets starting at $3 million. The firm works with individuals and institutions in 35 states with a concentration of those clients in the West. Ferguson Wellman manages $3.9 billion that comprises retirement plans; endowments and foundations; and separately managed accounts for individuals and families. In 2013, West Bearing Investments was established, a division of Ferguson Wellman, that manages investment portfolios starting at $750,000. All company information listed above reflects 3/31/14 data.

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A Little Less Conversation, a Little More Action

by Ralph Cole, CFA Executive Vice President of Research

A Little Less Conversation, a Little More Action

The European Central Bank (ECB) finally stopped jawboning the markets this week and put into place additional policies to get the European economy moving forward. Slow growth and disinflation continue to loom over the EU and spurred the ECB to take aggressive actions.

Specifically, the ECB announced the following policy actions¹; they are:

1)      Lowering the Eurosystem refinancing rate to .15 percent 2)      Lowering the interest rate on the marginal lending facility to .40 percent 3)      Lowering the deposit facility rate to negative 10 basis points (you have to pay the ECB 10 basis points to hold your money if you are a bank) 4)      They have outlined a new $400 billion long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) to aid bank lending

The ECB stopped short of QE but did not rule out the idea in the future. The central bank is hoping to stimulate bank lending which in turn should promote growth throughout the region. The EU is anticipating that some of this growth comes from a weakening Euro. A weaker currency would encourage tourism and make EU products cheaper abroad.

Working for the Weekend

We would be remiss if we didn’t at least mention the monthly jobs report that comes out the first Friday of the month. We have pointed out to readers that it is probably the most important report for understanding the durability of the recovery and the mood of the American consumer.

At this point in the cycle, we are also starting to look at the monthly jobs report for an additional source of insight about inflation. Wage inflation is a precursor to overall inflation in the economy. Wages in the U.S. have started to rise, albeit slowly. For the month of May average hourly earnings increased 2.4 percent year-over-year. While that is not a level that we would deem inflationary, wages in certain sectors are accelerating.

Takeaways for the Week

• Equity markets around the world responded positively to the new round of policies announced by the ECB this week
• Job growth of 217,000 was not enough to trigger sharp wage inflation in the month of May

¹Source: Barron’s

Disclosures

Four More Professionals Receive Five Star Wealth Manager Designation

PORTLAND, Ore. – June 3, 2014 – For the fourth consecutive year, several Ferguson Wellman portfolio managers have been recognized as Five Star Wealth Managers by Portland Monthly magazine. Nathan Ayotte, CFP^®, Ralph Cole, CFA, Helena Lankton and Jason Norris, CFA, were among the professionals honored. This adds to others in our firm who have been listed as Five Star Wealth Managers, including Dean Dordevic, Lori Flexer, CFA, Marc Fovinci, CFA, Steve Holwerda, CFA, George Hosfield, CFA, Mark Kralj, and Jim Rudd. The Five Star Wealth Manager distinction is a select award recognizing wealth managers that provide quality services to clients, with approximately 13 percent of the wealth managers in the greater Portland area earning this designation.

“We are very pleased that so many of our portfolio managers have been recognized by Portland Monthly and Five Star Professionals for this award,” said Jim Rudd, principal and chief executive officer. “This honor speaks to the investment expertise and experience these professionals bring to our clients.”

The Five Star Wealth Manager designation is based upon 10 objective eligibility and evaluation criteria, ranging from credentials to regulatory history to client retention, that are associated with wealth managers who provide quality service to their candidates. Candidates with “an established practice, good client relationships and a strong reputation” are nominated by peers and firms and verified against the criteria (source: Five Star Wealth Manager Award Program Summary and Research Methodology).

Founded in 1975, Ferguson Wellman Capital Management is a privately owned registered investment adviser that serves more than 650 clients with assets starting at $3 million. The firm works with individuals and institutions in 35 states with a concentration of those clients in the West. Ferguson Wellman manages $3.9 billion that comprises retirement plans; endowments and foundations; and separately managed accounts for individuals and families. In 2013, West Bearing Investments was established, a division of Ferguson Wellman, that manages investment portfolios starting at $750,000. All company information listed above reflects 3/31/14 data.

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The Five Star Wealth Manager award, administered by Crescendo Business Services, LLC (dba Five Star Professional), is based on 10 objective criteria: 1. Credentialed as a registered investment adviser or a registered investment adviser representative; 2. Active as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of 5 years; 3. Favorable regulatory and complaint history review (As defined by Five Star Professional, the wealth manager has not: A. Been subject to a regulatory action that resulted in a license being suspended or revoked, or payment of a fine; B. Had more than a total of three customer complaints filed against them [settled or pending] with any regulatory authority or Five Star Professional’s consumer complaint process; C. Individually contributed to a financial settlement of a customer complaint filed with a regulatory authority; D. Filed for personal bankruptcy; E. Been convicted of a felony); 4. Fulfilled their firm review based on internal standards; 5. Accepting new clients; 6. One-year client retention rate; 7. Five-year client retention rate; 8. Non-institutional discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9. Number of client households served; 10. Educational and professional designations. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or awarded. Once awarded, wealth managers may purchase additional profile ad space or promotional products. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided and is not indicative of the winner’s future performance. 1,558 Portland wealth managers were considered for the award; 190 (13 percent of candidates) were named Five Star Wealth Managers.

Ascending to New Heights

by Shawn Narancich, CFA Executive Vice President of Research

Ascending to New Heights

Subsiding geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, tentative steps by Chinese policymakers to support slowing growth, and more deal-making domestically combined to send U.S. stock prices to new record highs this week. Investors expecting negative revisions to previously reported first quarter GDP numbers were undeterred by the latest numbers that proved surprisingly poor, buying shares of economically sensitive companies poised to benefit from a rebounding economy. The fact that benchmark U.S. equities are now up four percent for the year is less surprising to us than the observation that bonds have nearly kept pace. Until just recently, key fixed income indices were outperforming stocks, prompting no small amount of ink to be spilled by investment analysts attempting to explain why bonds have done so well at a time when economic growth domestically is accelerating.

Skating to Where the Puck Will Be

While somewhat shocking at first glance, the one percent first quarter GDP contraction reported by the U.S. Commerce Department earlier this week paints an unrealistically dour view of the US economy. By now, almost anyone who didn’t hibernate through the unusually cold and snowy winter knows what the inclement weather did to economic activity. We are encouraged by recent strength in reported payrolls, rising U.S. energy production and the health of key manufacturing indices that point to rising domestic investment. With retail activity picking up, we do not foresee inventory investment continuing to detract from GDP in the second quarter, and surprisingly low interest rates may very well end up providing a nice boost to the recently lackluster housing market. All told, we expect a strong rebound domestically, one that could produce upwards of four percent GDP growth in the second quarter.

Food Fight

We anticipated that a faster rate of economic growth, relatively low interest rates and high levels of cash on corporate balance sheets would stimulate merger and acquisition activity this year, and that is certainly what has transpired. Deal-making in the cable, telecom and drug industries that has dominated M&A headlines so far this year gave way to activity in the food aisle this week, as meat processors Tyson and Pilgrim’s Pride now find themselves in a bidding war for Jimmy Dean sausage and cold cut company Hillshire Brands. What started as an attempt by Hillshire to expand its grocery store presence by acquiring Pinnacle Foods (purveyor of Birds Eye frozen vegetables and Log Cabin syrup) has turned the hunter into prey. Pinnacle Foods, which soared 13 percent earlier this month on the Hillshire bid, has now given back almost all of its recent gains on the heels of Pilgrim’s Pride’s $45/share bid for Hillshire Farms. The presumption is that the poultry producer wouldn’t want Pinnacle in the fold, opting instead to vertically integrate with Brazil’s JBS, the 75 percent owner of Pilgrim’s Pride. Complicating matters, chicken and pork processing competitor Tyson entered the fray by offering a superior bid of $50/share for Hillshire.

How this game of chicken concludes is hard to tell, but what the frenzied deal making in the food business demonstrates is the industry’s slow growth and ultra-competitive dynamics. Key players are being incented to combine and eliminate duplicative cost structures, produce more favorable margins by vertically integrating from the meatpacking floor to the cold-cut aisle and dampen the cyclicality inherent in livestock production.

Our Takeaways from the Week

• Contraction in the US economy early this year should give way to stronger growth in the months to come

• M&A activity continues at a heightened pace as key players jockey for better industry positioning

Disclosures

An Interest in Interest Rates

by Brad Houle, CFA Executive Vice President

At the beginning of the year, we stated our belief that interest rates would gradually rise as three things occurred in 2014: the economy gains strength, unemployment continues to drop and bond market investors anticipate the Fed raising short-term interest rates. Thus far in 2014, the bond market has not been aligned with Ferguson Wellman's interest rate forecast. We continue to look for signs that our thesis was off-the-mark, but the fundamentals that lead us to this conclusion remain. 

After a rough start to the year that was attributed to extreme winter weather, we believe the gross domestic product (GDP) growth can exceed 3 percent without making any heroic assumptions. In 2013, there was significant fiscal drag as government cut spending. This year, the drag of government cuts should roll off and government spending will be additive to GDP growth. Unemployment continues to move downward with the most recent reading being 6.3 percent. In addition, the “wealth effect” of last year's strong stock and real estate returns should add to consumer spending which comprises two-thirds of the economy. With the aforementioned set of economic circumstances, a 10-year Treasury over 3 percent by year-end is not out of the realm of possibilities. 

It is difficult to pinpoint reasons that interest rates have continued to drop this year. Theories include the potential for quantitative easing in Europe, short covering by traders and perceived slowdown in economic growth. Addressing these topics independently, there is thought that the European Central Bank will engage in aggressive quantitative easing similar to what we’ve seen in the U.S. and Japan recently. In other words, the Federal Reserve in the U.S. is buying much of the bond issuance from the U.S. Treasury in an attempt to keep interest rates low. Bonds of developed market countries in the European Union have had strong price performance since the recent debt crisis whereby the yields on Spanish and Italian bonds are not that different than U.S. Treasury bonds. The U.S. has far higher credit quality than these European countries; one can understand investor preference in owing U.S. Treasuries over European country debt.

Short covering is the unwinding of a position by an investor which is designed to gain in value when interest rates climb. Many investors have positions that are bearish “bets” on U.S. interest rates. As rates have declined this year and have not climbed as anticipated these investments lose value. Then as investors unwind these types of trades, it can cause upward pressure on bond prices which correspondingly moves interest rates lower.

Lastly, belief in slower economic data would also potentially cause interest rates to drop because it would signal a slowing economy and a delay in the Fed raising short-term interest rates. Most recently, a disappointing retail sales report for the month of April was cited by some as evidence that the economy is slowing.

We believe that the recent movement in interest rates is mostly a short-term phenomenon. The economic recovery has solid momentum and as a result interest rates should move higher slowly over time. Presently, we are underweight fixed income for our clients and have invested the accounts defensively as a result of our interest rate forecast.

Our Takeaways for the Week

o   We still believe interest rates will move higher throughout the remainder of 2014

o   The U.S. economy is gaining momentum during the second quarter

Disclosures

Ferguson Wellman Capital Management Ranked 22 on Forbes Magazine’s Top 50 Wealth Managers List

Ferguson Wellman Capital Management Ranked 22 on Forbes Magazine’s Top 50 Wealth Managers List 

PORTLAND, Ore. – April 29, 2014 – Ferguson Wellman Capital Management was recently notified that the firm was named by Forbes Magazine as a top wealth management firm. This is the second year that Ferguson Wellman was represented on the Forbes list.

Specifically, Forbes named Ferguson Wellman 22nd on the “Top Fifty Wealth Managers” list. The data for the rankings is provided by RIA Database and is based on the total discretionary assets under management. The firm moved up from its previous position of 40th on the list in 2013.

“This is an honor earned by everyone at Ferguson Wellman. While it is always gratifying to be ranked highly among your peers – what is most meaningful to us is earning the confidence of clients who entrust us with their assets,” said Jim Rudd, principal and chief executive officer.

According to Forbes, the top 50 list represents 15 percent of the entire registered investment adviser (RIA) industry, collectively managing $224 billion in assets. Over the past five years, Forbes has worked closely with RIA Database to identify “true wealth management” criteria for its readers.

Founded in 1975, Ferguson Wellman Capital Management is a privately owned registered investment adviser that serves over 650 clients with assets starting at $3 million. The firm works with individuals and institutions in 35 states with a concentration of those clients in the West. Ferguson Wellman manages $3.9 billion that comprises union and corporate retirement plans; endowments and foundations; and separately managed accounts for individuals and families. In 2013, West Bearing Investments was established, a division of Ferguson Wellman, that serves clients with assets starting at $750,000. All company information listed above reflects 3/31/14 data.

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Methodology RIA Database compiled the 2013 FORBES Top Wealth Manager Ranking based on total assets under management as of March 31, 2014. Registered investment advisors (RIAs) were included if they provide wealth management services to high net worth individuals. RIAs were excluded if they own and/or manage a mutual fund, hedge fund or broker/dealer. Firms with regulatory, civil or criminal disclosures were also excluded. RIA Database is a Labworks, LLC company: http://www.RIADatabase.com.

“Forbes Top 50 Wealth Managers 2014”   http://www.forbes.com/top-50-wealth-managers/

Note: Clicking on this link will take you to a third-party website. The information provided by this site is not endorsed or guaranteed by Ferguson Wellman. Clients should contact their portfolio manager with any questions about this topic. 

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

by Jason Norris, CFA Executive Vice President of Research

Should I Stay or Should I Go

This question seems to more prevalent these days as equity markets muddle along and bonds continue to rally. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell below 2.5 percent this week as investors attempted to seek safety and income. Economic data hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been bad and we still believe that the “Spring Thaw” will come to fruition and stocks will outperform bonds in 2014.

Best of Both Worlds

As investors increase their exposure to bonds, driving the yield on the 10-year Treasury below 2.5 percent, it leaves us curious as to what is driving this behavior. One culprit may be that U.S. yields are relatively high on a global basis. Global fixed income investors have a lot of markets to consider, but it seems the U.S. continues to be very attractive. Yields in Germany on 10-year government debt are as low as 1.3 percent, where France isn’t much higher at 1.8 percent. There is relatively no income in Japan, with yields under 0.6 percent. Therefore, the U.S. is competing more with Norway (2.6 percent) and even Spain and Italy (both around 3 percent). It is no wonder with global rates so low, that investors are flocking to the U.S. to boost their coupon.

Gettin’ Better?

We received mixed data on the consumer this week. Retail sales came in with a disappointing 0.1 percent monthly gain, with autos being a drag. Walmart disappointed investors as higher gas prices and lower government assistance programs were a drag on spending. Nordstrom, however, exhibited strong growth in their market segments. Jobless claims hit a seven year low on Thursday with initial applications for benefits dropping 24,000 last week to 297,000 this week. Meanwhile, small business sentiment hit a six year high. We believe the U.S. economy is improving after a poor first quarter, primarily due to weather, and we remain bullish on increasing domestic growth. Cisco Systems reiterated this view on their most recent earnings call citing a “very good month [of April]” with the U.S. leading the way in growth.

A New High in Lows

Global hedge fund data was released and for the first time on record (data inception 2003), hedge funds have lost money for three consecutive months while equity markets rose. It seems that a lot of hedge funds have been long on small cap growth and as we’ve seen that trade unwind (rather quickly), they have been slow to follow. Time will tell if this is a short term phenomenon, or a longer term trend. There have been parts of that market that moved into “bubble” territory. Our small cap exposure tilts toward quality and we still believe this area of the market is attractive due to its exposure to the U.S. economy.

Our Takeaways from the Week:

• Investors remain skittish and are seeking safety over risk, but this will be a short-term occurrence
• We believe the U.S. economy will continue to grind higher and will be a stand out for the developed world

 Disclosures

Motion Simulating Progress

by Ralph Cole, CFA Executive Vice President of Research

Talk, Talk, Talk

It seems that every time you turn around, the Fed is trying to communicate information to the capital markets or to Congress. This week, Janet Yellen made a trip to Congress to speak to the Joint Economic Committee where she gave a very balanced view of the economy and of possible future Fed actions.

Chairwoman Yellen said that the U.S. economy paused in the first quarter, but appeared to be gaining steam in the current quarter. This view dovetails perfectly with our own views at Ferguson Wellman. The questions from Congressional members centered on job growth, unemployment and the labor participation rate. As we watch testimony of this type, it is interesting to observe the new Fed Chair sidestep the clearly partisan questions and get to the heart of what the Fed is tasked to do and what duties are tasked to Congress. This inculcation occurs every time the Fed Chair is invited to give testimony. The Fed has a dual mandate ― maximum employment and stable prices. This slower than usual recovery has placed an increased focus on employment, and what the definition of “full” employment actually is. Congress and the markets want to identify the exact unemployment rate at which the Fed will begin raising rates, which we think is foolhardy. The Fed Chairwoman explained the importance of not reading too much into any one data series, and any one data point. Rather, it will depend on a number of factors.

Here in our office we are turning our focus toward wage-related inflation. Increasing wages are often a precursor to overall inflation for the economy, and just like the Fed, we will be looking for acceleration at the margin for a number of indicators, not any one indicator.

What’s Going On

What has surprised us has been the movement of rates going lower in the face of better growth. Many explanations have been floating around and we suspect it is a combination of slower growth in the first quarter of the year and low rates around the world, making the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury look appealing. We continue to believe that an improving labor market and positive GDP growth will move rates higher in the coming months.

Our Takeaways from the Week

• While Chairwoman Yellen is adept at dealing with Congress, we hope that the Fed can reduce their commentary in the future which we believe will reduce overall volatility in the fixed income markets
• Strong first quarter earnings for the S&P 500 continue to support higher stock prices in the future

Disclosures

Spring is Finally Here

by Shawn Narancich, CFA Executive Vice President of Research

Spring is Finally Here  

True to our outlook for the quarter and in-line with anecdotes from the mass of companies reporting first quarter earnings, the U.S. economy appears to be gaining speed after a weather-induced slowdown earlier in the year. While investors were disappointed to learn that first quarter GDP barely budged in the U.S., their disappointment was short-lived, as the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average traded to new highs this week, with the benchmark S&P 500 not far off its best-ever levels. Merger and acquisition deal flow has picked up markedly, signaling greater confidence in corporate America to deploy near-record levels of idle cash. To our surprise, benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds remain remarkably well bid, with yields that held stable after a bullish jobs report likely reflecting continued geopolitical risk in Eastern Europe.

Green Shoots

Investors were encouraged to see that the U.S. jobs market kicked into a higher gear, producing substantially better than expected growth of 288,000 net new jobs in April. Previously reported jobs numbers were revised higher and the unemployment rate fell to a 5-and-one-half-year low of 6.3 percent. Bears will argue that a drop in the labor force participation rate to 36-year lows was responsible for the falling jobless rate, as discouraged workers gave up the hunt for jobs. We would argue that an accelerating economy will produce more job opportunities for disaffected workers, pulling them off the sidelines and tempering the decrease in unemployment. Average hourly earnings remain subdued, rising at the slowest pace of the year, and likely heartening the Fed, which earlier in the week left its QE3 tapering on course for conclusion by year-end. In addition to healthier labor markets, equities are responding favorably to further strengthening of the U.S. Purchasing Managers Index, a benchmark gauge of manufacturing health; it rose for the fourth consecutive month in April and dovetails with the rising levels of manufacturing and construction employment seen in the payroll report. U.S. auto production in March rising at the fastest pace since 2007 is another data point confirming for us the renaissance in domestic manufacturing. Finally, we were encouraged to see March consumption spending increase by nearly 1 percent sequentially, indicating that shoppers are beginning to spend at healthier rates following a brutal winter.

The Urge to Merge

All of a sudden, deal-making abounds: the planned combination of orthopedic device makers Zimmer and Biomet, Comcast’s proposed acquisition of Time Warner Cable, GE’s bid for Europe’s Alstom, Exelon’s planned acquisition of fellow utility Pepco Holdings, and Pfizer’s $106 billion bid for British drug maker AstraZeneca. This sample of proposed combinations highlights companies attempting to grow their bottom lines through sales and cost synergies at a point later in the economic cycle, when organic growth is harder to come by.

Only time will tell whether these deals actually get consummated as antitrust issues and nationalistic sentiment could foil at least a couple of them. For investors, the bidding activity shines a positive light on the economy and corporate valuations that we believe will continue to expand.

Late Innings of Earnings Season

Nearly 75 percent of the S&P 500 Index has now reported first quarter earnings. With forecasts that initially called for a decline in earnings now morphing into the reality of low single-digit growth, we observe that corporate America is once again proving its ability to under-promise and over-deliver.

Our Takeaways from the Week

•  Evidence of an accelerating economy continues to mount as weather-induced weakness fades
•  Heightened deal activity and better-than-expected corporate earnings leave stocks well bid, trading at near-record highs

Disclosures

Will Unemployment Be the Rat in My Kitchen?

by Brad Houle, CFA Executive Vice President

The British reggae band, UB40, was formed in 1978 and, according to Wikipedia, went on to have more than 50 singles on the UK Singles Chart and achieved considerable international success, selling over 70 million records. During the late 1970s and early 1980s, the economy in the UK was depressed with high unemployment and the band's name reflected the economic environment of the time. UB40 is a reference to a document to obtain unemployment benefits from the UK government. The designation UB40 stood for Unemployment Benefit, Form 40. As investors, we have been very focused on unemployment in this country, which is measured by two different measures, U-3 and U-6.

The most widely quoted measure of unemployment is collected by the Bureau of Labor Statics and is called U-3. This gauge of joblessness simply assesses the percentage of the labor force not employed. Total labor force is defined as the number of employed plus unemployed. Presently, the U-3 is 6.7 percent and has been as high as 10 percent following the Great Recession.

U-6 is a measure of underemployment that is presently 12.7 percent and was as high as 17 percent in the time following the financial crisis. U-6 determines the unemployed as well as those that are working part-time but desire full-time work. It includes workers that are overqualified for their current position based on education or experience level as well as those that are considered to be marginally attached to the workforce. Marginally attached workers are persons that have not looked for work in the past 12 months yet indicate that they are open to being employed.

Currently, full employment, as based upon the U-3 number, is considered to be between 4 and 5 percent. Full employment is an evaluation of unemployment whereby the vast majority of employable people are employed. Unemployment never drops to zero because there is a segment of the population that is unemployable.

Despite the continued slack in the labor market, we view the economy as still growing. The unemployment rate as measured by U-6 or U-3 continues to go down, just at a rate that is slower than most investors would like to see.  We continue to expect stronger economic growth for the rest of the year as we get past the weather impacted data from the winter months.

Takeaways for the Week:

• Companies are in the midst of reporting first quarter earnings. Of the S&P 500 companies that have already reported their earnings, more than half the companies beat sales expectations and 75 percent have beat earnings expectations
• Apple had stronger than expected earnings and raised the dividend and increased their share repurchase

Disclosures

Time of the Season

by Jason Norris, CFA Executive Vice President of Research

Here Comes the Sun

The polar vortex of 2014 seems to have finally thawed and we believe this change in the weather will bring some warmth to the U.S. economy. Economic growth hit a speed bump in the first quarter as much of the U.S. experienced severe winter conditions. This resulted in lower-than-expected economic activity, which in turn led investors to reduce risk in their portfolios and bid up bonds, leading to a decline in interest rates. We believe the “soft patch” is a short-term phenomenon and we have already started to see a pick-up in retail sales and industrial production, as seen in the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

While stock market volatility hasn’t hurt consumer confidence, the price of gas may do so in the near future. We have seen a 10 percent increase in gas prices over the last two months. Commodity prices can be volatile, but if this is a persistent trend higher, it will present an impediment to our bullish view of the U.S. consumer.

Send Me Your Money

April 15 has come and gone, bringing increased revenues to the Treasury. 2013 showed high single digit “revenue” growth for the Treasury. On the expenditure side of the ledger we are seeing lower-than-anticipated spending on healthcare and defense. Both of these instances should lead to lower deficits. While the U.S. is still spending more than it takes in, we are pleased that difference is declining. For those tax payers who have a big heart and want to make a difference, the IRS includes a box on tax forms for filers to check if they want to make a donation to the Treasury. Remember that tax rates are just a minimum requirement – you may always pay more. Over the last 15 years the average annual donation has been around $2 million; however, 2014 has already eclipsed this amount with $2.7 million in donations. Considering the strength in equity markets the last few years, will there be more “giving” to the U.S. government… or will increased capital gains taxes eat into this potential philanthropy?

Back in Business

April kicks off the first quarter earnings season for 2014 and this week we saw two bellwether semiconductor companies report, Intel and Linear Technology. The results were mixed, with Intel citing a pick-up in the P.C. space and Linear seeing strength in automobile and industrial markets. Both companies showed average revenue growth but profit margins continue to remain high.

Overall, expectations for the first quarter are for an earnings growth of three percent (year-over-year). This is down from expectations of 10 percent growth three months ago. We believe this negative revision is a result of the inclement weather in the first quarter. We expect second quarter growth to reaccelerate to nine percent. That may prove to be somewhat optimistic, but we believe we will see greater than five percent growth in the second quarter.

Our Takeaways from the Week:

• As we move into spring, we would expect U.S. economic growth to continue to pick up
• We would use the recent strength in the bond market as an indication to reduce exposure and move those funds to U.S. equities

 Disclosures

Investment Outlook Video: Second Quarter 2014

We are pleased to present our Investment Outlook: Second Quarter 2014 video titled, "Spring Thaw". This quarter, Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses how the weather impacted the economy and what we believe that means for the continued recovery.

To view our Investment Outlook video, please click here or click on the image below.

jpeg of Q2 2014 video

Mark Kralj and Emily Kralj Highlighted in OSU Business School Magazine

In a recent article in The Exchange, the magazine of Oregon State University College of Business, we enjoyed seeing the Kralj family featured. Mark Kralj, principal, and his daughter, Emily Kralj, shared their experiences with Oregon State and the institution’s impact on their family and work. “Mark has a long and distinguished career of service and philanthropy to the entire university, in addition to the College of Business. We are very proud of Mark for his contributions to Oregon State University,” said Jim Rudd, principal and chief executive officer of Ferguson Wellman.

A Business Beaver Colony

The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. Cut from the same cloth. Two peas in a pod. Just don’t tell lifelong Beaver Believers Mark Kralj (’77) and his daughter Emily Kralj (’09) that they are two birds of a feather.

While it wasn’t necessarily Emily’s plan to follow in her father’s footsteps, the duo’s parallel education and career paths have led them to the same building where Mark is a Principal at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management, and four floors below him Emily is a Senior Staff Accountant at Geffen Mesher & Company.

The Kralj family’s roots run deep at Oregon State, so it’s no surprise that Mark and Emily both found themselves here. Mark’s two older sisters went to Oregon State; so when it came time for him to choose a college, there was no other option. And while Emily considered going to college out east, the small-town feel and familiarity of Oregon State won in the end. Emily was indoctrinated into the Beaver lifestyle at a young age, growing up going to football games.

“I remember watching Oregon State beat #1 USC when I was 12 or 13,” she recalled, “and everyone rushed on to the field, and I was like, “I want to do that! That looks like so much fun!”

Neither Mark nor Emily came to Oregon State to study business, but it was the College of Business faculty that heavily inspired, influenced and changed the direction of both their career paths. Mark started out studying forestry, and while minoring in business he took his first accounting class with Professor Mary Ellen Phillips.

“I had never considered accounting,” said Mark, “but in taking that class as part of my minor, I realized it was my calling.” Little did he know at the time, but history would repeat itself 33 years later.

Emily started out majoring in engineering, and when she realized it wasn’t a good fit, she took her first accounting class with Professor Amy Bourne. Again, it was in this first introduction to accounting that Emily found her true passion and shifted her studies to business.

If measured by Mark and Emily’s success, one can safely say the switch in majors was a wise decision.

Mark has been with Ferguson Wellman for 24 years, and has been instrumental in growing the company’s assets from $380 million to $3.75 billion in that time. He also remains heavily involved in giving back – among numerous volunteer positions, including as an OSU trustee.

“I can’t really say enough about the good things that have occurred in my life because of Oregon State, and because of that I’m thrilled to be a part of the foundation, and to be there to create opportunities for the students of today,” Mark said.

Emily has been with Geffen Mesher & Company since she graduated in 2009, and focuses on tax accounting and business consulting. Wholeheartedly agreeing with her dad’s sentiments, Emily appreciates the role Oregon State has played for her family. “I don’t think our family would have gotten to where we are without Oregon State,” she said, “because it’s always been such a foundation.”

Growth, Gas and Golf

by Shawn Narancich, CFA Executive Vice President of Research

Suspended Animation

 Despite an improving job market and a spring thaw that appears to be lifting the economy out of its winter doldrums, U.S. equity investors felt the chill of a sell-off that left benchmark stock indices underwater for the year. Confronted by the dawning reality that the Fed’s ultra-accommodative monetary policy is going away and, by implication, that projected inflation premiums are rising, high-flying tech stocks like Facebook, Twitter, and Amazon have been particularly hard hit. In contrast, amid a bond market rally that few foresaw at the start of the year, interest-sensitive stocks within the utility sector and REIT space have performed quite well. In general, value stocks are outperforming growth and, from out of the blue, emerging market stocks have begun to excel. Despite the distinct possibility that tighter monetary policy in countries like Brazil, South Africa and India could push these economies into recession, the markets of these BRICS constituents have rallied recently. For our part, we expect waning fiscal headwinds and a renewal of fortunes in the energy and manufacturing sectors to produce faster U.S. economic growth as the year progresses.

Shoulder Season

With the dawn of April, U.S. natural gas markets have officially transitioned from heating season to what is known as “injection season.” Commonly, the clean burning commodity falls in price this time of year as cold weather wanes and heating demand disappears (often referred to as “shoulder season”), allowing natural gas producers to start injecting gas into underground storage caverns in preparation for next winter. Front-month gas prices are down from the $6.00/Mcf level reached in February, but prices have been notably firm around the $4.50 level recently, and are much higher than the $2.00 lows reached in 2012. Prices have risen because of demand growth from utilities using more gas to generate electricity, but more immediately because of an unusually cold winter that has depleted storage inventories to 10-year lows. Surprisingly, a more than doubling of gas prices has happened without a lot of fanfare, as gas bears beat the drum of supply response from “gas behind pipes.”

Gas Bulls

The key question now is whether a domestic energy industry more focused on drilling for shale oil will be able to replenish gas supplies in time for the next heating season. At current prices, count us as skeptics. Natural gas directed drilling is at the lowest level since 1992, and while associated gas from oil directed drilling has provided a key source of supply, we doubt it will be enough to adequately refill depleted storage caverns. The reality is that curtailed gas flow doesn’t exist on any meaningful scale, and with the typical shale oil project still much more profitable for producers, we don’t expect adequate gas drilling to materialize until futures prices reach the $5.00-to-$5.50 level. Because of the substantial lead times necessary to transport drilling rigs and hydraulic fracturing equipment from oil to gas basins, combined with the time it takes to actually drill and complete new gas wells, the industry will not be able to turn on a dime. As a result, price spikes could occur until adequate new supplies materialize.

A Tradition Unlike Any Other

As the world’s best tee it up at Augusta National this week, money managers are gearing up for a pursuit of their own, less affectionately known as earnings season. Aluminum producer Alcoa kicked things off in acceptable fashion earlier this week and, following early reports from Wells Fargo and JP Morgan, reporting starts to kick into a higher gear next week.

Our Takeaways from the Week

•  Stocks have retreated from recent highs despite generally improving economic data

• Depleted supplies and healthy demand growth appear to have ended the bear market in natural gas

Disclosures

Be Careful What You Say

by Brad Houle, CFA Executive Vice President

Flash Boys

“High-frequency trading” (HFT) was a huge media topic this week due to author Michael Lewis’ appearance on last weekend’s “60 Minutes” as part of his promotion of his latest book titled Flash Boys. What captured media attention was his claim that the stock market was a "rigged game." This statement was based upon his research for Flash Boys that detailed the impact of high-frequency trading on the stock market. HFT is a very complex trading strategy that relies on computers to trade at lightning speed to make a small amount of money on a huge volume of trades. In fact, it is theorized that 30 to 50 percent of the current stock exchange volume is HFT.

High-frequency trading is an extremely complex issue that simply can't be summarized by declaring the stock market a "rigged game."  In most forms, HFT is not illegal. It falls into a grey area of trading. If certain investors have a speed advantage, is that unethical? It is hard to say and supporters of HFT maintain that it adds liquidity to the market and facilitates trading. However, the aspect of HFT that is not defensible is that it also allows these trading firms the ability to know what other investors are doing and trade ahead of them. This practice is called "front running" which is certainly unethical and illegal.

The issue is so broad and complex, it is very difficult to determine who is doing what, and how that is impactful to the stock market as a whole. This is not a new issue for regulators who have been looking at HFT for some time now. We think the good news is that the recent attention on the topic will result in appropriate market reforms which will benefit investors. Financial markets operate on the confidence of the participants, and anything that enhances transparency and confidence benefits all investors.

While Mr. Lewis is a great writer and entertaining storyteller, his comments are unnecessarily inflammatory and might be intended to sell books and maximize the value of a possible film adaptation.

Employment Numbers March On

Turning to the capital markets, today the March employment numbers were released with a 192,000 increase in nonfarm jobs and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent. The consensus among economists was for a 200,000 increase in jobs. Due to the late-December expiration of long-term unemployment benefits, there was an expectation that the employment numbers would be even stronger than anticipated.

Historically, when long-term unemployment benefits run out, there is a significant pickup in employment. The “whisper number” was for a gain of 250,000 or more jobs. Defined as the number economists secretly hope will be the outcome, the “whisper number” usually is not reached by consensus and therefore is rarely published as an estimate. The bottom-line is that markets perceived the March job creation as a mild disappointment which resulted in some weakness in the equity markets.

Takeaways for the Week

• We view the current employment data to be moving in the right direction
• We are not overly concerned with the monthly volatility of the labor statistics

Disclosures

Tech Makes the World Go Round - Oregon Business Blog

Jason Norris, CFA, executive vice president of research for Ferguson Wellman, is a guest blogger for Oregon Business. This month, Norris shares his views on technology. From a milestone anniversary for the World Wide Web to social media IPOs, Norris shares how technology has evolved and how history can repeat itself. Click here to review the complete posting.

Spring Break Movies

by Tim Carkin, CAIA, CMT Senior Vice President

Divergent

This week the market is showing some interesting divergence. The S&P 500 performance is paltry, nearly flat on the year. Technology, biotech and consumer discretionary sectors, which are more heavily weighted in the NASDAQ, started selling off heavily last week leaving the NASDAQ down more than seven percent year to date. This week small cap stocks, which had been performing admirably, sold off more than four percent and are now negative on the year. Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and other large financials also sold off heavily after the Fed’s latest stress test results. On the plus side, emerging market stocks rallied significantly this week in hopes of new Chinese stimulus.

Need for Speed

A few good economic readings came out this week. Last month’s Q4 GDP number was revised up to an annualized 2.6 percent from 2.4 percent. This came as consumer spending in February rose by the most in three years and jobless claims declined last week to the lowest level in four months. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a favorite economic indicator of past Fed Chairman Bernanke ticked up 0.1 percent in February. Lower jobless claims and a low inflation rate give the Fed a little cushion to work with when considering stimulus and rate increases.

Rise of an Empire?

The constant media attention of developments in the standoff between Ukraine and Russian is weighing on the market. We did get good news on that front in an announcement from the IMF of $14-18 billion in aid. In addition, our Senate approved $1 billion in loan guarantees and the EU promised more than 10 billion euros in the next few years. On the other hand, Yulia Tymoshenko, former Prime Minister of Ukraine, announced her candidacy for president. This ensures the standoff will remain in the news through the Ukrainian elections on May 25^th.

Takeaways for the Week

• Geopolitics is a major overhang to the momentum in the U.S. economy

 Disclosures

From Healthcare to Hoops

by Jason Norris, CFA Executive Vice President of Research

I Want a New Drug

We have seen a major resurgence in the healthcare space with regard to R&D and stock performance. In 2013, with the broad market up over 30 percent, the healthcare sector returned close to 45 percent and was the second best-performing sector. This year, in a flat, sideways-trending market, healthcare has been the best performing sector. We believe the sector gives investors a great mix of growth as well as stability and income. The worst of the drug patent cliff and generic substitution is behind us. We saw this transition peak in 2011 and 2012 with the likes of Lipitor, Plavix, Viagra and Singular coming “off patent.” This total was roughly $90 billion of revenue for big pharma companies. With this event sunseting, big pharma has cut costs, spun off divisions and made acquisitions to “right size” their lines of business. We anticipate the emerging pipelines from big pharma to more-than-offset the loss of revenue that will occur in 2016 and 2017. This reemergence is driven by diabetes, oncology and anti-clotting drugs.

Another space displaying strong R&D performance is biotech. In 2013, Biogen Idec launched its revolutionary multiple sclerosis drug and this year we have seen Gilead’s hepatitis C treatment (Sovaldi) come to market. The growth opportunities for this type of drug are great. For example, six months ago, Gilead was estimated to sale $2 billion of Sovaldi in 2014. Now expectations have risen around $7 to $10 billion. The R&D efforts in drug development around the world continue to break new ground.

Cover Me

The end of March will mark the conclusion of the first open-enrollment season of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). While the rollout was far from perfect, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty of its effects on the healthcare sector. We believe, relative to investing, most of the uncertainty has been diminished. The taxes that were implemented on the drug makers and medical device manufacturers have already taken effect. It is anticipated that the remaining uncertainties will affect hospital and insurance markets. As we have seen some adverse selection in the enrollment, the overall costs to the plans may see steep increases. While there is a clause in the ACA to reimburse insurance providers for their losses, we have heard “rumblings” from Congress to repeal this provision. While that is highly unlikely, it still creates uncertainty.

Finish What You Started

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve continued to reduce their monthly bond purchases and gave all indications that they want this program to wrap up by year end. The Fed did state, however, that they will continue to remain “accommodative” while the economy muddles along. The major change was the removal to the 6.5 percent unemployment-rate threshold. We anticipated this because of the issues around labor participation can distort the rate. We do believe that the Fed funds rate will be anchored at 0.25 percent well into 2015.

Come Monday

On Monday, April 7, the NCAA will crown a men’s college basketball champion. For those lucky enough to still have a viable bracket, you are moving closer to winning $1 billion from Warren Buffet, providing you continue to have the perfect picks. The odds of this are 1-in-9 quintillion (yes that’s 19 zeros).  Let’s hope that in the last couple days, worker productivity did not fall too much as fans tried to follow all the games.

Our Takeaways for the Week

• We remain bullish on the healthcare sector and believe it will outperform the broad market
• Even though interest rates have fallen year-to-date, as the Fed unwinds its bond buyer and the economy picks up, the 10-year Treasury will end the year above 3 percent

 Disclosures

Underneath it All

by Ralph Cole, CFA Executive Vice President of Research

Workin’ for a Livin’

The U.S. jobs report has become the most watched economic indicator in the world. The jobs report comes out on the first Friday of the month and includes the unemployment rate and number of new jobs created the prior month. Both January and February reports were underwhelming due to weather, but we think employment will strengthen more than people think in the coming months.

Dan Clifton of Strategas alerted us this week to some underlying trends that will be playing out in the labor market in the coming months. Extended unemployment ran out at the end of December. The Senate voted this week to retroactively extend those benefits through May of this year, which may or may not become law. The fact is that long-term unemployment benefits ran out for a significant number of people in December. History tells us that many of these folks will go out and find jobs, bringing down the unemployment rate faster than people expect.

We have a real-life example in North Carolina. North Carolina’s emergency benefits ran out six months ago. Since that time, the state’s unemployment rate dropped 2 percent!  During that same time period, employment in North Carolina increased 1.3 percent versus the national average of just .5 percent.

The Gambler

Vladimir Putin continues his quest to win over Crimea. He has been admonished by every major country in the world, but will not give in until after Crimea’s secession referendum on Sunday. The U.S. and other major powers have stated that this is an illegal vote that is contrary to the Ukrainian constitution. How this plays out in the near term is important, but the more interesting part of the story is the long-term implications of Russia’s aggression.

We’ve written at great length about the energy revolution here in the U.S. and the benefits that will accrue over time because of it. Much of Europe’s natural gas comes from Russia, with more pipelines in the works. This partnership is being questioned in light of Russia’s latest activities, resulting in our European allies turning their attention to “the Saudi Arabia of natural gas” (i.e., the United States). While the U.S. won’t be able to assist in the near term, we think recent tensions will cause additional pipelines and liquid natural gas terminals to be approved in the coming months.

Our Takeaways from the Week

• The labor market is stronger than people believe and will lead to rising interest rates in the coming months
• Vladimir Putin has overplayed his hand. While he may win the Crimea vote on Sunday, he just offended his country’s largest customer
• Uncertainty in China and Russia led to a sell-off in the S&P 500 of 1.7 percent for the week

  Disclosures

Marc Fovinci Quoted in Bloomberg News

Treasuries Hold Losses as Ukraine Tension Eases Before Jobs Data  By Kevin Buckland and Mariko Ishikawa

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries maintained the biggest gain since November amid speculation the crisis in Ukraine will ease, and before U.S. data this week forecast to show employers stepped up hiring.

Australian and Japanese government bonds retreated after Russian President Vladimir Putin said yesterday that there’s no immediate need to invade eastern Ukraine, limiting demand for havens. Treasury 10-year yields rebounded from a one-month low, surging back above their 200-day moving average after dipping below the mark this week for the first time since May.

“If the Ukraine situation de-escalates further, we should see higher rates, and that’s what we’re expecting,” said Marc Fovinci, head of fixed income in Portland, Oregon, at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management Inc., which has $3.5 billion in assets. “There’s still a risk-aversion premium in Treasuries.”

The U.S. 10-year yield was little changed at 2.69 percent as of 6:51 a.m. in London from yesterday, when it rose 0.1 percentage point, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 2.75 percent note due February 2024 traded at 100 17/32.

Yesterday’s jump in 10-year yields was the biggest on a closing basis since Nov. 8. They touched 2.59 percent on March 3, the lowest since Feb. 4. A break above 2.7 percent would “mark a near-term yield base,” Credit Suisse Group AG analysts David Sneddon and Christopher Hine wrote in research today.

Australia’s 10-year government bond yields rose for a second day, climbing six basis points to 4.06 percent after the nation’s economy expanded faster than estimated. Japan’s 10-year benchmark yield rose one basis point to 0.61 percent.

Crimea Crisis

Russia would use the military only in “an extreme case,” Putin said in a press conference yesterday, signaling the crisis that provoked a standoff with the West and roiled global markets won’t immediately escalate.

Russian intervention in Crimea, which the U.S. condemned as a breach of Ukraine’s sovereignty, sparked demand for bonds of developed countries from the U.S. to Japan for their perceived safety, overshadowing the prospect of higher yields as the U.S. recovery gathers pace.

Treasuries are on track for their best quarter since the three months that ended in June 2012 after turmoil in emerging markets from Argentina to Turkey spurred demand for haven assets. The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index (BUSY) has gained 1.8 percent since the end of last year.

U.S. Jobs

U.S. employers hired 150,000 workers in February, after adding 113,000 in January, according to a Bloomberg News survey before the Labor Department releases the figures on March 7. A report from ADP Research Institute today will show companies boosted payrolls by 155,000 last month after an increase of 175,000 in January, a separate Bloomberg poll estimates.

Employment gains for December and January were both less than economists forecast, depressed by winter storms.

“There’ll be some pretty severe weather impact on payrolls, making it another month of hard to interpret numbers,” said Ferguson Wellman’s Fovinci. “There are no roadblocks in the way of economic growth that we’ve seen.”

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated on Feb. 27 that the central bank is likely to keep curtailing its stimulus. The central bank said on Dec. 18 it would trim its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, before cutting by another $10 billion in January. The purchases are designed to hold down long-term borrowing costs and spur economic growth.