George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
This week, the equity market had a “shoot first, ask questions later” response to news surrounding DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup company that claimed to achieve ChatGPT-level performance at a fraction of the cost. This news sent a shockwave through the technology sector, sparking a frenzy of speculation and questions about AI innovation.
his week, Oregon residents experienced the first taste of fall. Evenings, once long and balmy, gave way to early, crisp sunsets. Leaves, damp from evening rain and morning dew, began dropping from trees. Pumpkins appeared on porches to greet the trick-or-treaters that would soon walk door-to-door. Lastly, capital markets demonstrated similar signs of change with company earnings announcements and macroeconomic data reports, ending a fairly quiet week by setting the stage for more significant releases of information in the coming weeks and months. Surely, fall is upon us.
Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "Awaiting the Score." In the video, he discusses how the Fed is shifting its focus to the labor market.
Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "We’ve Landed."
The summer season is fast approaching, and this typically brings feelings of excitement and relaxation; a time of year that many people spend months looking forward to. However, these positive feelings may not translate to all facets of life.
The world of investing is welcoming a new generation: Gen Z. A recent study by the FINRA Foundation and the CFA Institute found that a whopping 56% of Gen Z are already invested, with many starting younger than any generation before them. This tech-savvy group is also turning to social media for investment information, making their approach quite different from those of us who entered the market during or after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).
With the Federal Reserve taking a ‘higher-for-longer’ approach to interest rates, bond yields are higher than what the market expected at the start of the year.
The U.S. stock market saw a rebound the last couple of weeks, breaking the prior three-week losing streak. The S&P 500 gains were driven by mega-cap names due in large part to their recent earnings results which exceeded investors’ expectations.
Head of Fixed Income and Principal Brad Houle, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "So Far, So Good." In the video he discusses how the Fed's fight on inflation is faring, our belief that commercial real estate is not similar to residential real estate circa 2008 and investors' expectations for earnings for the remainder of the year.
We present Market Letter publication for the second quarter 2024 titled “So Far, So Good” in which Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, outlines our belief the Fed remains on course to deliver an ever-so-rare soft landing to this inflationary cycle. Dean Dordevic writes about the Japanese economy and Warren Buffett’s investment there in recent years since the introduction of the “Corporate Governance Code” and Jason Norris, CFA, provides an update on equity market valuations and how investors expect the market to grow for the remainder of the year.
This week investors shrugged off hotter-than-expected inflation data, one of the most important data inputs for the Fed in deciding its next policy moves. The impact of the Fed aggressively raising rates over the past year has brought inflation down from a whopping 9% in June 2022 to 3% by the end of 2023. The Fed’s ultimate target is 2%. Much like updating a computer, the last bit sometimes takes the longest.
By March, our feelings of excitement for a new year have generally worn off and we have settled into our winter routines. The hope of an early spring and longer days are normally what carries us through the season, but this year, more excitement is brewing.
The most prominent news for the markets this week came from semiconductor company Nvidia, as they announced their most recent earnings. Nvidia is at the tip of the spear for the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence investing. The company’s dominant market share in the chips used to train artificial intelligence models and build out artificial intelligence infrastructure has driven exorbitant growth for the company in the last couple of years.
It was an action-packed week in the capital markets headlined by the Federal Reserve’s first meeting of 2024. The central bank decided to leave their benchmark interest rate unchanged at a 23-year high – a level at which it has been since July of last year.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate this week by 0.25% to 5.25 – 5.50%, marking the eleventh increase since March of 2022, bringing the interest rate to its highest level in 22 years.
The U.S. economy continues to defy one of the most anticipated recessions. Since January, investors and economists have been on edge as economic indicators started flashing red, particularly the purchasing managers index (PMI) and the leading economic indicators (LEI). Both metrics are closely watched as they have been reliable in foretelling downturns.
Over the last 18 months we have seen the tale of two markets. Looking at returns through June, large-cap growth stocks have driven returns resulting in the S&P 500 returning just under 17%. However, a slice of the market which is lagging meaningfully is dividend-paying stocks. Looking at a basket of dividend ETFs through June, returns are a paltry -2%.
Many people believe the world’s largest and most important economy is on the brink of default. Indeed, politicians generally do a disservice by pushing their agenda until the last minute and then lose the trust of their constituents and investors. However, negotiations on the debt ceiling have improved over the last few days and the risk of default has decreased.
“How do you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” -Ernest Hemingway
As of this writing, there are expectations that First Republic Bank may not survive the weekend. However, we believe that First Republic’s issues are not systemic across the industry. Unlike 2008, these issues with First Republic, as they were with Silicon Valley Bank, are not credit related. Rather, it was the issues that were part of their business model, which played out as Hemingway stated in “The Sun Also Rises.”
