Annual presentation from Ferguson Wellman sharing our views for the year regarding the global economy and capital markets, as well as a planning update from our wealth management team.
2025 Investment Outlook Webinar Video: Lessons Learned
Investment Strategy Video Fourth Quarter 2024
Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "Awaiting the Score." In the video, he discusses how the Fed is shifting its focus to the labor market.
Tale of the 10-Year Treasury
A sense of excitement often marks the 4th of July as millions of Americans celebrate with a day full of festivities, reflection and national pride. This holiday kicks off July with a bang and sets the tone for a month filled with what we all enjoy – fun in the sun! Equities have taken center stage, the “bang” investors sought this year.
Investment Strategy Video Third Quarter 2024
Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "We’ve Landed."
Vibecession
The summer season is fast approaching, and this typically brings feelings of excitement and relaxation; a time of year that many people spend months looking forward to. However, these positive feelings may not translate to all facets of life.
Talkin' 'Bout My Generation
The world of investing is welcoming a new generation: Gen Z. A recent study by the FINRA Foundation and the CFA Institute found that a whopping 56% of Gen Z are already invested, with many starting younger than any generation before them. This tech-savvy group is also turning to social media for investment information, making their approach quite different from those of us who entered the market during or after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).
Putting the ‘Income’ Back in Fixed Income
With the Federal Reserve taking a ‘higher-for-longer’ approach to interest rates, bond yields are higher than what the market expected at the start of the year.
Mega-Cap Earnings in Focus
The U.S. stock market saw a rebound the last couple of weeks, breaking the prior three-week losing streak. The S&P 500 gains were driven by mega-cap names due in large part to their recent earnings results which exceeded investors’ expectations.
Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
The first three weeks of the second quarter have been tough for both equity and bond investors. After a great start to the year, there hasn't been any place for investors to hide in April. The chart below highlights that the three major equity classes, as well as bonds, have all posted negative returns, with Small Caps now down close to 4% for the year.
Is 3% the New 2%?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of goods and services prices across the economy, and a popular gauge of inflation. The headline CPI rose 3.5% in March from a year earlier, which was higher than economists had forecast and an increase from February’s 3.2% reading. The Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, also rose more than expected, with medical care and auto insurance boosting the non-housing service prices.
Second Quarter 2024 Investment Strategy Video: So Far, So Good
Head of Fixed Income and Principal Brad Houle, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "So Far, So Good." In the video he discusses how the Fed's fight on inflation is faring, our belief that commercial real estate is not similar to residential real estate circa 2008 and investors' expectations for earnings for the remainder of the year.
Market Letter Second Quarter 2024: So Far, So Good
We present Market Letter publication for the second quarter 2024 titled “So Far, So Good” in which Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, outlines our belief the Fed remains on course to deliver an ever-so-rare soft landing to this inflationary cycle. Dean Dordevic writes about the Japanese economy and Warren Buffett’s investment there in recent years since the introduction of the “Corporate Governance Code” and Jason Norris, CFA, provides an update on equity market valuations and how investors expect the market to grow for the remainder of the year.
Productivity = Prosperity
By March, our feelings of excitement for a new year have generally worn off and we have settled into our winter routines. The hope of an early spring and longer days are normally what carries us through the season, but this year, more excitement is brewing.
2024 Investment Outlook Webinar Video: Sticking the Landing
Annual presentation from Ferguson Wellman sharing our views for the year regarding the global economy and capital markets, as well as a planning update from our wealth management team.
What's Next for Interest Rates?
One irony from the bond market in 2023 was that the year started with near unanimous calls for a recession, finished with an over 20% return for the S&P500 and consensus for a soft landing, yet the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury ended the year right where it started at 3.88%.
Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold
All investor eyes were on the jobs report today and per usual, the economic data did—and did not—disappoint. The most recent report outpaced expectations, with 216,000 more jobs created in December compared to the estimate of 170,000.
Reflections
As we wrap up 2023, we always like to look back on the year in the markets and put the last 12 months in perspective. In December 2022, the S&P 500 had just finished an 8% rally from the October lows. With stocks still down close to 20% for the year, the outlook for 2023 looked bleak as forecasts by economists were overwhelmingly skewed toward recession.
A Different Type of Housing Crisis
In recent months, we have received a number of questions from clients regarding the possibility of another housing crisis. While we do not see a housing crash like the one experienced in 2008, there is a different type of disruption in the residential real estate market.
Giving Thanks (And Talking Drama)
The holiday-shortened week was chock full of drama … all centered around both the market’s current mania (artificial intelligence) and the market’s favorite pandemic era mania (cryptocurrency). A strong third quarter earnings season, favorable inflation data and a moderation of long-term interest rates have all contributed to a stellar month for the stock market which is now within 5% of its all-time high, which was reached in December 2021. We will all be giving thanks if recent momentum continues into the end of the year.
Early Holiday Cheer
Further evidence of slowing inflation amid moderating retail sales lent additional credence to the economic soft landing narrative this week, exactly 18 months after the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat high prices. Meanwhile, retailers book-ended third quarter earnings season in generally encouraging fashion, putting finishing touches on a surprisingly upbeat reporting period that now tallies positive revenue growth for the S&P 500 and over 6% earnings per share expansion.