by Peter Jones, CFA
Senior Vice President
Equity Research and Portfolio Management
The holiday-shortened week was chock full of drama … all centered around both the market’s current mania (artificial intelligence) and the market’s favorite pandemic era mania (cryptocurrency). A strong third quarter earnings season, favorable inflation data and a moderation of long-term interest rates have all contributed to a stellar month for the stock market which is now within 5% of its all-time high, which was reached in December 2021. We will all be giving thanks if recent momentum continues into the end of the year.
All eyes were on AI-superstar, Nvidia, the company that designs the semiconductors that enable AI capabilities. Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Facebook’s spending is Nvidia’s revenue. The increase in Nvidia’s revenue numbers this year have been truly unprecedented. Even with continued restrictions on sales to China, a large market for Nvidia, sales expectations for the current fiscal year have increased from $30 billion in May to $58 billion today. The enormity of a nearly 100% revision to sales in 6 months is one thing, but the sheer magnitude of the nominal $28 billion of added sales is staggering. If you are looking for evidence that the AI revolution has arrived, look no further than Nvidia’s sales growth. Even more, sales are expected to increase another $42 billion next year to $90 billion. Nvidia’s momentum is no secret, however, and despite the continued growth to sales estimates, the stock declined 3% on the earnings release as investors were looking for even more. Oregon State University has been giving thanks to Nvidia founder and CEO, Jensen Huang, a Beaver alum, for his $50 million donation to the university earlier this year.
Even more dramatic than the growth seen at Nvidia this week was the boardroom for ChatGPT parent company, OpenAI. OpenAI has a very unique governance structure, with the board operating like a non-profit and the subsidiary containing ChatGPT intentionally capping its own profits. This approach is justified by the notion that AI is potentially dangerous for humanity and therefore a company like OpenAI should not only focus on profits but also its overarching mission, which should prioritize social welfare. Clearly, as ChatGPT is backed by Microsoft and other investors, the non-profit governance combined with a capitalist investor base has created conflicts of interest. Last weekend, in a surprise move, the board ousted OpenAI co-founder and CEO Sam Altman, citing “lack of candor in communications with the board”. Altman has become one of the key figureheads in the AI movement and the face of ChatGPT. The fallout of Altman’s ousting in the last few days has been a whirlwind. On Monday, the board brought Altman back into OpenAI headquarters to negotiate terms for his reinstatement - these negotiations failed, and Altman ended the night as an employee of Microsoft. In response, 700 of the 770 employees at OpenAI signed a letter with their intent to resign from OpenAI unless the board brought Altman back. As a result, Altman’s tenure at Microsoft lasted less than 24 hours. The drama culminated with OpenAI bringing Altman back as CEO and more than half of the former board resigning themselves. Following the OpenAI fiasco this week has made us all very thankful to have such a stable governance structure at Ferguson Wellman.
Mere weeks after FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried was sent to jail, another crypto “giant” and founder of Binance pled guilty to money laundering charges and stepped down as CEO. Changpen Zhao, also known as “CZ” is known as the largest player in the crypto industry and his guilty plea is yet another screaming example of cryptocurrency and related businesses being used not as a democratization of currency but rather a complex mechanism to fund illicit activity and defraud consumers. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen notes, “Binance turned a blind eye to its legal obligations in pursuit of profit, and its willful failures allowed money to flow to terrorists, cybercriminals and child abusers through its platform”. To start, Binance has been assessed a fine of $4.3 billion for violating the Bank Secrecy Act, the largest penalty in U.S. Treasury history. Thankfully, crypto has become a much smaller headline grabber than it was during the pandemic.
As we reflect on giving thanks this week, we are grateful for our clients, our professional partners and for a stock market that has come roaring back in 2023! We hope our readers enjoy a wonderful holiday with family and friends.
Takeaways from the Week
Strong earnings, softer inflation and a moderation in interest rates have driven a sharp rally in the market so far this month.
Nvidia continues to blow out sales expectations and represents the proof point for growth in AI technology.