by Jade Thomason
Equity and Fixed Income Trader
A sense of excitement often marks the 4th of July as millions of Americans celebrate with a day full of festivities, reflection and national pride. This holiday kicks off July with a bang and sets the tone for a month filled with what we all enjoy – fun in the sun! Equities have taken center stage, the “bang” investors sought this year. Specifically, the S&P 500 is up 16% year-to-date, keeping spirits high and investors content. Such a substantial return tends to take attention away from the steady heartbeat of any well-balanced portfolio – bonds. The bond market serves as a critical gauge of current events, reflecting investor sentiment and economic expectations through fluctuations in bond prices and yields. Today, we will look at a pillar of the bond market – the 10-year U.S. Treasury – and break down its fluctuations in response to this week’s events.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is a pivotal indicator in financial markets, influencing everything from mortgage rates to stock market sentiment. Due to its importance, movement in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is closely monitored and helps investors reconcile the impact of certain events and economic data. As shown below, this week was anything but boring in the bond market.
Source: Bloomberg
Beginning on June 28 and continuing through July 1, yields soared to 4.48%, the highest level since May 31. The catalyst for this increase was last Thursday's presidential debate, a significant event that saw the odds of a second Donald Trump presidency jump among forecasters. Deficit concerns could partially explain the spike in yields, as economics experts say a second Trump presidency would likely widen the federal deficit. As bond traders are sensitive to high levels of government debt, unchecked deficit spending could prompt market "vigilantes" to limit purchases of U.S. bonds and, therefore, drive yields higher.
The event that commenced a decrease in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was the release of the meeting minutes from the Fed’s mid-June policy in which Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he was pleased with how inflation had resumed a downtrend following a rebound at the start of the year but said it was still too soon to say whether the central bank might be able to lower interest rates by the end of the summer. These comments regarding a disinflationary path led to the first drop in yields we would see for the week. Powell focused on labor-market conditions and wages, which have slowed gradually in a way that has clearly satisfied Fed leaders. This dovetails nicely into the next piece of economic data to further decrease yields – the weaker jobs data.
In June, U.S. companies increased hiring at a slower rate and saw wage growth ease, according to private payrolls data from the ADP Research Institute. Additionally, weekly unemployment claims rose for the ninth consecutive week, signaling an extended period where more individuals face challenges securing new employment opportunities. Today’s Labor Department release of June’s 206,000 gain in non-farm payrolls appears to agree. Though this gain was slightly ahead of expectations, it was coupled with a downward revision in the past months’ gain and an uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.0% to 4.1%, providing further evidence that the labor market appears to have come into better balance.
Finally, data on business activity in the services sector rounded out the drop in yields. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the U.S. experienced a contraction in business activity. The ISM Services Index for June plummeted to 48.8 from 53.8, marking its lowest level since May 2020 and the most rapid decline in four years, indicating softening economic conditions.
Despite the shortened week, the bond market proved dynamic and insightful, showcasing the valuable information that can be gleaned from its responses to specific news events.
Takeaways for the Week
The S&P 500 hovers at record levels and is on pace for its fourth positive week in the last five weeks, up 16% year-to-date
The widely monitored labor data released Friday reflected a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, which rose to 4.1%