In recent months, we have received a number of questions from clients regarding the possibility of another housing crisis. While we do not see a housing crash like the one experienced in 2008, there is a different type of disruption in the residential real estate market.
Cooling of the Labor Market
As we celebrate Labor Day this weekend, we thought it appropriate to look at the current employment situation in the United States. The job market has been surprisingly robust since the elevated unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic and economic shutdown.
Back in Time
A key economic data point this week was a flashback to the 1960s with initial unemployment claims at 198,000, which are levels we haven’t seen since that decade.
Demand-Driven Disruption
Americans are buying more than ever before. Despite supply actually surpassing above pre-COVID levels and dockworkers unloading ships as fast they can, the supply chain is unable to keep up with record consumer demand. Furthermore, the supply-demand gap may worsen as we head into the peak of holiday shopping season.
Making Sense of the (Un)Employment Picture
Each week our Investment Policy Committee meets to review asset allocation and our outlook for the economy and global markets. We have a standard book of economic charts that we review to determine the health of the economy and what is transpiring around the world and many of these indicators go back decades.
Better, but a Long Way to Go
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added nearly 1.8 million jobs in the month of July, outpacing economist expectations for an addition of 1.5 million.
The Fear Index Fades
Negative interest rates have been in the news this year and have been the source of questions from clients. Negative Interest rates are an extraordinarily unusual phenomenon where an investor pays for the “privilege” of loaning a country money.