George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
Strong economic data led the market to big gains this week, despite President Trump’s tariff announcement. The S&P 500 was up over 3 percent, while bond yields were quiet on the week. Volatility has indeed returned to the market with three-out-of-five days experiencing more-than-1-percent swings in value.
For the week the equity markets were lower by more than three percent as investors reacted to the news that President Trump intends to impose a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports fueling fear of protectionist economic policy.
Global equity markets were up slightly this week after the U.S. experienced its greatest one-week gain since 2011 in the previous week. Interest rates took a pause in their upward move with the 10-Year Treasury flat on the week at 2.87 percent.
Following the stock market’s first correction since the Chinese growth scare two years ago, blue-chip stocks have rebounded furiously, producing the best week of returns since December of 2011. Investors spooked by the rapid descent of stock prices earlier this month are now scrambling to get back in.
The S&P 500 officially entered correction mode this week, pulling back approximately 10 percent from the January highs.
NOTE: This communication was originally sent to clients on February 5, 2018.
As we entered 2018 our expectations were for the market to be positive for a 10th consecutive year, but we felt that volatility would return. In the past week, market volatility has returned in a big way. Since January 26, the S&P 500 is down 7.5 percent. This represents the biggest selloff since the China growth scare of January 2016. This correction takes the S&P 500 to negative-1 percent for the year.
Market corrections within bull markets are a common occurrence, yet never pleasant. In our Investment Outlook this year we highlight the difference between a market correction and a bear market. The chart below shows that when a correction occurs in a growing economy the average market selloff is about 13 percent, and it takes about six months to return to even. When a market correction is associated with a recession, the market drops an average of 34 percent and it can take up to three years to get back to even. We believe this is a correction, and not a bear market.
The irony of this selloff is there just may be too much good economic news. The market is selling off over the concern that growth and inflation will accelerate, causing the Fed and possibly other central banks around the world to tighten more than is expected. The market is undergoing an adjustment of expectations around rate hikes and interest rates. Our view is that interest rates will go up this year, but not enough to slow global economic growth.
Recent volatility is not causing us to change our stance on asset allocation. We remain neutral in our clients’ target stock-to-bond ratio. If there is cash in a portfolio that is waiting to be invested, we are using this pullback as an opportunity to deploy that cash. We urge clients to remain patient in the face of market volatility. While we don’t know how long this selloff will last, we do know that selling into weakness is rarely, if ever, a good decision. We continue to believe the S&P 500 will be higher at the end of the year, but volatility has returned.
If you have any questions or concerns, please contact your portfolio manager.
This week we experienced something we haven’t in some time: a down week. Stocks struggled to a close, down 3.8 percent with no help from blue-chip names. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Apple reports weren’t favored by Wall Street, driving the stocks down 5.2 and 4.3 percent, respectively.
Equity markets finished the week up by 1.5 percent, and now are up almost 7 percent for the year. This is the 4th best start to the year for the S&P 500. The U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield continued its march higher by 6 basis points, finishing at 2.65 percent.
Global equity markets continued their hot start to the year with the S&P gaining 0.6 percent, Europe 1.25 percent and emerging markets up 1.65 percent. On the other hand, bonds declined slightly as interest rates moved higher with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finishing the week at 2.63 percent, its highest level since last spring.
In the video, George Hosfield, CFA, principal and chief investment officer, explains why we believe this ninth year of economic expansion and related bull market for equities will extend into 2018.
IPhone Addiction May be a Virtue, not a Vice for Investors
Apple investors are shrugging off concerns raised by two shareholders about kids getting hooked on iPhones, saying that for now a little addiction might not be a bad thing for profits.
U.S. stocks continued their upward climb this week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index trading above 25,775 and the S&P 500 rising approximately 1.5 percent for the week. The U.S. dollar traded off relative to the euro, which surged to a three-year high of $1.21.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act enacted on December 22, may significantly change tax planning for many of our clients. As in past years, we are providing you with a link to the College of Financial Planning’s® Guide to Annual Limits, which is a reference for 2018 for a variety of tax and other wealth planning figures.
Stocks picked up where they left off in 2017, rising across market caps and geographies for each of the first four trading days of the new year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eclipsed the 25,000 mark this week and it took just 23 trading days to gain its latest 1,000 points—the fastest such gain in index history.
As the U.S. economy enters its 10th-consecutive year of growth, significantly it has been joined by an increasingly synchronized expansion of the major world economies. Though asset prices across-the-board are elevated at this stage of the economic cycle, we believe that in 2018 equity investors stand to benefit from further economic expansion and lower corporate tax rates that together could result in another year of double-digit earnings growth.
Stocks finished the last week of December relatively flat resulting in a 20+ percent total return for the S&P 500 for 2017. Interest rates were steady with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury ending the year at 2.41 percent, down slightly from a year ago.
This week the S&P 500 was up slightly as investors focused on the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which was signed into law by President Trump on Friday morning. Conversely, bonds sold off with interest rates moving higher with the 10-year U.S. Treasury increasing in yield from 2.39 percent to 2.48 percent, which is a substantial move in the span of a week. Bond investors are anticipating an increase in Treasury bond issuance with expected increased deficit spending due to the tax law.
Markets moved modestly higher this week with domestic stocks up nearly 1 percent and the benchmark 10-year Treasury was off 2 basis points. As if held up by a mysterious force, Bitcoin set a new high Friday just shy of 18,000.
Ferguson Wellman Capital Management has been ranked by InvestmentNews magazine as a top investment company.
InvestmentNews named Ferguson Wellman 11 out of 15 companies in their “Western Success Stories” category in the listing of largest fee-only RIAs as organized by region as based on assets under management. Ferguson Wellman is the only firm to be included from Oregon and is the largest in the Pacific Northwest to be included.
“We are honored to be included in this impressive list of advisers by InvestmentNews. We believe it is a testament to how we have strategically grown our business and consistently focused on a high level of service for our clients,” said Steve Holwerda, CFA, principal and chief operating officer.
Founded in 1975, Ferguson Wellman Capital Management is a privately owned registered investment advisory firm, established in the Pacific Northwest. As of January 1, 2017, the firm manages over $4.5 billion for more than 760 clients that include individuals and families; Taft-Hartley and corporate retirement plans; and endowments and foundations with portfolios of $3 million or more. West Bearing Investments, a division of Ferguson Wellman, serves clients with assets starting at $750,000. (data as of January 1, 2017).
Methodology and Disclosure from Financial Advisor:
InvestmentNews qualified 1,937 firms headquartered in the United States based on data reported on Form ADV to the Securities and Exchange Commission as of Nov. 1, 2017. To qualify, firms must have met the following criteria: (1) latest ADV filing date is either on or after Jan. 1, 2016, (2) total AUM is at least $100M, (3) does not have employees who are registered representatives of a broker-dealer, (4) provided investment advisory services to clients during its most recently completed fiscal year, (5) no more than 50 percent of amount of regulatory assets under management is attributable to pooled investment vehicles (other than investment companies), (6) no more than 25 percent of amount of regulatory assets under management is attributable to pension and profit-sharing plans (but not the plan participants), (7) no more than 25 percent of amount of regulatory assets under management is attributable to corporations or other businesses, (8) does not receive commissions, (9) provides financial planning services, (10) is not actively engaged in business as a broker-dealer (registered or unregistered), (11) is not actively engaged in business as a registered representative of a broker-dealer, (12) has neither a related person who is a broker-dealer/municipal securities dealer/government securities broker or dealer (registered or unregistered) nor one who is an insurance company or agency.
Source: InvestmentNews
Data Additional Disclosures:
InvestmentNews produced this list by surveying all registered investment advisors that filed their ADV with the SEC. Ferguson Wellman (the firm) is not aware of any facts that would call into question the validity of the ranking. The firm does not believe this advertisement is inappropriate and is not aware of any unfavorable rating towards the firm. InvestmentNews pulled data from ADV filings for the ranking. All 12,000 RIAs in the United States were surveyed, then they narrowed the field down to those with assets under management of $250 million or more. For the category we were considered, there were 214 firms that qualified, and the Firm ranked 55 of the 214. Of the firms listed in the total RIA survey and ranking by InvestmentNews, 33 percent fell into the $1 billion or more assets under management category. The rating does not involve client experience and is not indicative of Ferguson Wellman’s future performance. Ferguson Wellman did not pay a fee to participate in this survey.
