George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
Releasing minutes from their most recent meeting indicating that a June rate hike was still very much on the table, the Federal Reserve threw a wet blanket on the equity markets this week. Pursuant to that meeting, several Fed Governors conveyed the same feeling about the strength of the
Summer is right around the corner: hot weather, barbecues, road trips … and the sweet smell of hot tar and asphalt. Yes, it’s road construction time. If it seems that there are more flaggers on the road than the last few summers, it is because transportation infrastructure spending is on the rise. Federal
Our clients regularly ask about the financial impact of elections, especially as Election Day nears. We do know that, on average, the market is up 11 percent in election years, which is akin to the long-term average return. History has shown that markets (i.e., investors) dislike uncertainty. While
When we met with clients in January of this year we highlighted our thesis that while 2015’s equity returns were anemic and there were concerns at the outset of 2016, we maintained that the equity bull market was not over. This
Julie Cooling from Forbes’ RIA Channel, meets with Mark Kralj, principal and portfolio manager. They discuss Ferguson Wellman’s investment platform and strategy as well as why we work with individual securities.
Someone once told me that the secret to a happy life is low expectations. While a melancholy motto, it aptly captures the mood of the current earnings season. The S&P 500 has rallied from the depths of January, and is now positive for the year - this despite earnings estimates dropping rather precipitously
U.S. unemployment claims at a 43-year low, manufacturing PMI’s back in positive territory, and a five percent unemployment rate are key reasons why recent recession fears have receded. Against this backdrop, stocks are above water for the year. While retail sales, including this week’s print, have been lackluster, four
f you Google the word, “fiduciary,” you will find that the definition states, “involving trust.” As a fiduciary of your investments, you should expect your investment adviser to put your interests before theirs when it comes to advice and selection of investment strategies. For many institutions, this
Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its monthly employment statistics. Especially with the presidential election in full swing, the state of the jobs market is on people’s minds. Let’s step back from today’s numbers and look at the employment over this economic cycle.
What began as the worst start ever for stocks in early 2016 morphed into a market that recouped its early innings damage. As depicted in the accompanying chart, similarities between corrections observed last August and what just occurred are striking. In both cases, blue chip U.S. stocks fell by 12-13 percent because of growth scares emanating from China.
The resilience of the equity markets has been quite impressive. At the time of the February lows, pessimism was rampant. Faith in the Chinese economy was shaken, gold was on the rise and there were faint whispers of imminent recession. Fast forward six weeks and the S&P 500 has rallied
The S&P 500 rallied again this week and is back to even for the year. Our original outlook came under pressure from the first day of trading in 2016. We expected rates to be slightly higher for the year and within six weeks the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield had fallen from 2.30 percent to 1.66 percent. We expected stocks to have a modest return of between 5 to 8 percent this year
Judith and Cliff Allen have owned the modest Marcus Apartments in Portland's Irvington neighborhood since 1979. They personally know their 10 tenants, many of whom have lived there long-term and pay rents that these days are below the market rate. The building is 50 years old, but the renters like having hands-on landlords, said the Allens, who live in Clackamas County.
With change at the economic margin beginning to improve (e.g. recent U.S. payrolls, durable goods orders and manufacturing PMI), investors are beginning to see cyclical elements of the equity market improve. Oil prices are now up year-to-date, energy and industrials are all of a sudden outperforming the broader market, and financials, which so far this year have pulled up the rear, are starting to get a bid.
There are only a handful of retailers left to report their earnings this quarter and thus far, it appears that companies’ results reflect a tough year in 2015. Profit growth declined just over 1 percent from 2014 as weak commodity prices and a strong dollar were major headwinds. This resulted in earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 of $116. There were pockets of strength
State and local governments have finally emerged from the shadows of the Great Recession. This debilitating time period had drastic effects on regional economies – high unemployment and low corporate profits shrunk government coffers. Cash flow that would usually flow to infrastructure and pension plans was diverted to aid unemployed voters and plans to spur economic recovery. Government spending was
Currently, nearly 30 percent of the world's sovereign debt has a negative yield. Said differently, owners of $7 trillion worth of government bonds issued by countries all over the world will get less money than they invested if they hold the bond to maturity.
This month, Alaska Airlines Magazine includes an article on page 85 titled, "What Kind of Investor Are You?" Quotes from George Hosfield, CFA and chief investment officer, can be found on page 94 of this digital edition of the publication. Click here to access the magazine.
“It was a tumultuous end to 2015 with the stock market and the GDP coming out lower than expectations,” said Kellie Holloway, Senior International Trade Specialist with the U.S. Commercial Service.
