As the calendar turned to the final quarter of 2024, there was plenty of economic and geopolitical news for investors to digest.
A Market Moving Week: Both at Home and Abroad
Home Sweet Home Economics: Decoding the Fed's Impact on Housing
Recently, a realtor friend of mine shared that transaction volume was notably low due to high interest rates, resulting in a sluggish market. However, with last week’s Federal Reserve’s rates cut, he and likely others in the realty industry are hoping the housing market will be reenergized. While not everyone can buy or sell a house, home ownership is a prominent consideration when creating wealth. And while I’m not in the market to sell my house, I was curious about what is now occurring in the housing market.
Big Week for the Number 50
For sports enthusiasts and market participants alike, this week was all about the number 50. For fans of America’s favorite pastime, Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani became the first player in the history of professional baseball to record 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a single season. Ohtani achieved this historic accomplishment with a bang, going 6 for 6 with three home runs and 10 RBIs … in a single game.
Time to Pivot
On Wednesday, the last significant economic data release occurred before the Federal Open Markets Commitee (FOMC) meeting next week. Overall, inflation appears to be tamed with the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to a 2.5% growth rate compared to a year earlier, hitting a new three-year low.
Jobs > Inflation
In what is commonly known as their dual mandate, the Federal Reserve is charged by Congress to effectively promote both maximum employment and stable prices in the U.S. economy.
Labor (To)day
Labor Day marks the end of summer and is dedicated to honoring the American labor movement. The first Labor Day celebration occurred on September 5, 1882, in New York City and was organized by the Central Labor Union.
Too Big for Texas
As summer wraps up, the kids head back to school, and the weather becomes crisp, I can’t help but remember the ice storm that hit Portland earlier this year during one of the coldest weeks.
What to Expect When You're Expecting (a Rate Cut)
“What to Expect When You’re Expecting” is a book for many first-time parents. My wife and I are preparing for our third child’s arrival in October, a process that has been a mix of excitement and logistical planning. While this is not our first rodeo, the passage of time has certainly brought a fresh set of challenges.
Win Sahm, Lose Sahm
Over the last week, investors and market watchers were introduced to a relatively unknown economic indicator, the Sahm Rule. As highlighted by Google search data, interest in the indicator spiked last week.
The Devil (and Dove) Are in the Details
Last week, over 28 million unique viewers tuned into the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad opening ceremony in Paris, France, double the combined state populations of Oregon, Washington and Idaho. The ceremony set the stage for the coming weeks of competition and allowed viewers to catch their first glimpses of the best athletes in the world. This week, investors were focused on a different stage: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference, which offered insight into the Fed’s future perspectives on inflation and employment.
Faster Growth, Slower Inflation
In the last few days, the powerful rotation from growth stocks to value stocks, highlighted in our colleague Alex Harding’s article last week, continued.
Rotation
Since the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on July 11, the stock market has experienced a noticeable shift in leadership as the inflation rate continues to move toward the Fed’s target of 2%. Investors have been moving away from technology stocks, which have been the darlings of the market this year, towards small-cap and value stocks.
Fiscal Irresponsibility
We frequently receive questions from clients regarding the sustainability of U.S. government debt. According to the U.S. treasury, the American government has run a budget surplus only four times in the last 50 years, with the most recent being in 2001.
Tale of the 10-Year Treasury
A sense of excitement often marks the 4th of July as millions of Americans celebrate with a day full of festivities, reflection and national pride. This holiday kicks off July with a bang and sets the tone for a month filled with what we all enjoy – fun in the sun! Equities have taken center stage, the “bang” investors sought this year.
Steady As She Goes
Next month will mark the one-year anniversary of the Federal Reserve’s last interest rate increase. For the last year, there has been much handwringing in the media about a pending recession.
Nvidia Briefly Takes the Crown
Nvidia has become a daily fixture in tech news, but amid the constant buzz is a remarkable phenomenon with its unprecedented revenue and earnings growth.
Hawks vs. Stocks
It was an action-packed week headlined by Wednesday’s economic “doubleheader.” The Federal Reserve’s June meeting took place the same day as the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report.
A Loosening Jobs Market
On Friday, stock and bond investors wrestled with conflicting conclusions from jobs reports. Two surveys report jobs data: the payroll survey and the household survey. The payroll survey showed a gain of 272,000 new jobs. However, the household survey showed a loss of jobs and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.0%.
Vibecession
The summer season is fast approaching, and this typically brings feelings of excitement and relaxation; a time of year that many people spend months looking forward to. However, these positive feelings may not translate to all facets of life.
Talkin' 'Bout My Generation
The world of investing is welcoming a new generation: Gen Z. A recent study by the FINRA Foundation and the CFA Institute found that a whopping 56% of Gen Z are already invested, with many starting younger than any generation before them. This tech-savvy group is also turning to social media for investment information, making their approach quite different from those of us who entered the market during or after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).