George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "Awaiting the Score." In the video, he discusses how the Fed is shifting its focus to the labor market.
Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "We’ve Landed."
We present the third quarter 2024 Market Letter publication titled, “We’ve Landed,” featuring articles written by George Hosfield, CFA, Dean Dordevic and Joe Herrle, CFA.
With the Federal Reserve taking a ‘higher-for-longer’ approach to interest rates, bond yields are higher than what the market expected at the start of the year.
The U.S. stock market saw a rebound the last couple of weeks, breaking the prior three-week losing streak. The S&P 500 gains were driven by mega-cap names due in large part to their recent earnings results which exceeded investors’ expectations.
Head of Fixed Income and Principal Brad Houle, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "So Far, So Good." In the video he discusses how the Fed's fight on inflation is faring, our belief that commercial real estate is not similar to residential real estate circa 2008 and investors' expectations for earnings for the remainder of the year.
The holiday-shortened week was chock full of drama … all centered around both the market’s current mania (artificial intelligence) and the market’s favorite pandemic era mania (cryptocurrency). A strong third quarter earnings season, favorable inflation data and a moderation of long-term interest rates have all contributed to a stellar month for the stock market which is now within 5% of its all-time high, which was reached in December 2021. We will all be giving thanks if recent momentum continues into the end of the year.
Further evidence of slowing inflation amid moderating retail sales lent additional credence to the economic soft landing narrative this week, exactly 18 months after the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat high prices. Meanwhile, retailers book-ended third quarter earnings season in generally encouraging fashion, putting finishing touches on a surprisingly upbeat reporting period that now tallies positive revenue growth for the S&P 500 and over 6% earnings per share expansion.
Last week, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield reached 4.8%, the highest since June 2007. Bonds reached another milestone last week when the aggregate bond index posted its 38 consecutive monthly drawdown, marking this the longest bond bear market on record. The specific forces pulling the levers of the bond market are numerous, and the math is complex.
The lead story from the stock market this year may well be the outperformance of a narrow and select group of technology companies, however the leading economic story this year may be the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of the Federal Reserve’s concerted effort to rein in growth via higher interest rates.
Economic statistics are inherently backward looking while interest rate actions by the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) generally have a six to 12-month lag effect. The Fed is raising interest rates to slow the economy, which in turn should bring down inflation. This has typically been the relationship and the order of events, and we believe that will be the case this time around.
U.S. stocks ended higher this week as investors digested news of solid corporate earnings against a more hawkish-than-expected Fed and better-than-expected labor data. Throughout the year, rising rates and macroeconomic headwinds overwhelmingly pressured asset prices and valuations, even for companies that have demonstrated earnings resilience.
