George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
The world of investing is welcoming a new generation: Gen Z. A recent study by the FINRA Foundation and the CFA Institute found that a whopping 56% of Gen Z are already invested, with many starting younger than any generation before them. This tech-savvy group is also turning to social media for investment information, making their approach quite different from those of us who entered the market during or after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).
During the decade I spent in San Francisco, I had the pleasure of working with a great economist and investor from 2015 to 2019. Those years proved formative for my investing career, and I learned much from my time there. Recently, I have been reminded of an adage of his. After a short period of strong performance, he would exclaim, “We had a good year this month!”, meaning the portfolio returned what we considered a good year's worth of returns in a fraction of the time. Given the robust performance of the stock market over the last several months, I have been reminded of this saying more than a few times.
Remember "2023: The Year of the Hard Landing"? That was the dreary refrain echoing through late 2022, with recession fears dominating headlines and investment strategies. Fast forward to today, and the picture couldn't be more different.
It’s the holidays; for many, it is a time to reconnect with loved ones, share meals, exchange gifts and create memories that will last a lifetime. For those of us in the investment industry, it also means our news feed will be inundated with every research analyst, economist, strategist and personality on CNBC making predictions for the year ahead.
Gracing the cover of Time Magazine in 2017, famed political author and Eurasia Group founder, Ian Bremmer claimed “China Won.” This statement was not necessarily controversial, as economists and political pundits all but guaranteed a new age of geopolitical and economic dominance led by the fast-growing nation.
According to headlines and news pundits, it is a near certainty that the U.S. is very close to entering a recession (reminder: economists have successfully predicted nine of the last five recessions). Despite this, to date, the S&P 500 has posted a positive return of about 9% this year.
This week, all eyes were on the inflation report and the subsequent Federal Reserve announcement a day later. Since these were the last announcements of their kind for 2022, market participants were paying close attention, with the hope of gaining some insight into what the rest of the year might look like for markets.
Last Friday, the market closed out the day, week, month and quarter all with negative returns. Fears of higher inflation, more tightening by the Federal Reserve and potentially lower corporate earnings weighed on investors’ minds. The S&P 500 broke below the June low last week, extending the bear market that began in January. At 269 days as of quarter end, this is the most protracted correction since the March 2009 low. Surprisingly, the market decided to pull a 180 early this week, returning almost 6% on Monday and Tuesday. So, what was the deal?
Read our Market Letter publication for the fourth quarter 2022 titled, Bad News Is Good News, in which George Hosfield, CFA, Peter Jones, CFA, and Joe Herrle, CFA, share our thoughts on inflation, interest rates, the energy sector and housing supply in the United States.
The last time I wrote the blog was April 14 and inflation data was the topic du jour. Serendipitously, the July inflation announcement was the major market event this week. So, to keep me honest, let us revisit some items from the April post.
