Annual presentation from Ferguson Wellman sharing our views for the year regarding the global economy and capital markets, as well as a planning update from our wealth management team.
2025 Investment Outlook Webinar Video: Lessons Learned
Reason or Excuse?
On Wednesday, in a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve cut the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a new range of 4.25% - 4.50%. This brings cumulative interest rate cuts to 1% for calendar year 2024.
The Election and Interest Rates
In a typical week, a .25 point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve would likely be the top economic story in the United States. This was not a typical week.
Investment Strategy Video Fourth Quarter 2024
Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "Awaiting the Score." In the video, he discusses how the Fed is shifting its focus to the labor market.
Market Letter Fourth Quarter 2024
We present the fourth quarter 2024 Market Letter publication titled, “Awaiting the Score,” in which Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, outlines the positive impact of receding inflation, renewed profit growth and the Fed’s monetary policy on investors. Krystal Daibes Higgins, CFA, discusses the skepticism and evolving debate around the ROI of artificial intelligence (AI). Lastly, Brad Houle, CFA, asks the question, “How Far, How Fast?” when it comes to the Fed’s rate cuts.
Big Week for the Number 50
For sports enthusiasts and market participants alike, this week was all about the number 50. For fans of America’s favorite pastime, Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani became the first player in the history of professional baseball to record 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a single season. Ohtani achieved this historic accomplishment with a bang, going 6 for 6 with three home runs and 10 RBIs … in a single game.
Time to Pivot
On Wednesday, the last significant economic data release occurred before the Federal Open Markets Commitee (FOMC) meeting next week. Overall, inflation appears to be tamed with the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to a 2.5% growth rate compared to a year earlier, hitting a new three-year low.
Jobs > Inflation
In what is commonly known as their dual mandate, the Federal Reserve is charged by Congress to effectively promote both maximum employment and stable prices in the U.S. economy.
Labor (To)day
Labor Day marks the end of summer and is dedicated to honoring the American labor movement. The first Labor Day celebration occurred on September 5, 1882, in New York City and was organized by the Central Labor Union.
What to Expect When You're Expecting (a Rate Cut)
“What to Expect When You’re Expecting” is a book for many first-time parents. My wife and I are preparing for our third child’s arrival in October, a process that has been a mix of excitement and logistical planning. While this is not our first rodeo, the passage of time has certainly brought a fresh set of challenges.
Rotation
Since the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on July 11, the stock market has experienced a noticeable shift in leadership as the inflation rate continues to move toward the Fed’s target of 2%. Investors have been moving away from technology stocks, which have been the darlings of the market this year, towards small-cap and value stocks.
Investment Strategy Video Third Quarter 2024
Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "We’ve Landed."
Steady As She Goes
Next month will mark the one-year anniversary of the Federal Reserve’s last interest rate increase. For the last year, there has been much handwringing in the media about a pending recession.
Vibecession
The summer season is fast approaching, and this typically brings feelings of excitement and relaxation; a time of year that many people spend months looking forward to. However, these positive feelings may not translate to all facets of life.
Talkin' 'Bout My Generation
The world of investing is welcoming a new generation: Gen Z. A recent study by the FINRA Foundation and the CFA Institute found that a whopping 56% of Gen Z are already invested, with many starting younger than any generation before them. This tech-savvy group is also turning to social media for investment information, making their approach quite different from those of us who entered the market during or after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).
Putting the ‘Income’ Back in Fixed Income
With the Federal Reserve taking a ‘higher-for-longer’ approach to interest rates, bond yields are higher than what the market expected at the start of the year.
Mega-Cap Earnings in Focus
The U.S. stock market saw a rebound the last couple of weeks, breaking the prior three-week losing streak. The S&P 500 gains were driven by mega-cap names due in large part to their recent earnings results which exceeded investors’ expectations.
Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
The first three weeks of the second quarter have been tough for both equity and bond investors. After a great start to the year, there hasn't been any place for investors to hide in April. The chart below highlights that the three major equity classes, as well as bonds, have all posted negative returns, with Small Caps now down close to 4% for the year.
Houle on KOIN Wallet Wednesday
Is 3% the New 2%?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of goods and services prices across the economy, and a popular gauge of inflation. The headline CPI rose 3.5% in March from a year earlier, which was higher than economists had forecast and an increase from February’s 3.2% reading. The Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, also rose more than expected, with medical care and auto insurance boosting the non-housing service prices.