Annual presentation from Ferguson Wellman sharing our views for the year regarding the global economy and capital markets, as well as a planning update from our wealth management team.
2025 Investment Outlook Webinar Video: Lessons Learned
Investment Strategy Video Fourth Quarter 2024
Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "Awaiting the Score." In the video, he discusses how the Fed is shifting its focus to the labor market.
Investment Strategy Video Third Quarter 2024
Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "We’ve Landed."
Second Quarter 2024 Investment Strategy Video: So Far, So Good
Head of Fixed Income and Principal Brad Houle, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "So Far, So Good." In the video he discusses how the Fed's fight on inflation is faring, our belief that commercial real estate is not similar to residential real estate circa 2008 and investors' expectations for earnings for the remainder of the year.
Productivity = Prosperity
By March, our feelings of excitement for a new year have generally worn off and we have settled into our winter routines. The hope of an early spring and longer days are normally what carries us through the season, but this year, more excitement is brewing.
2024 Investment Outlook Webinar Video: Sticking the Landing
Annual presentation from Ferguson Wellman sharing our views for the year regarding the global economy and capital markets, as well as a planning update from our wealth management team.
What's Next for Interest Rates?
One irony from the bond market in 2023 was that the year started with near unanimous calls for a recession, finished with an over 20% return for the S&P500 and consensus for a soft landing, yet the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury ended the year right where it started at 3.88%.
The Labor Market Holds the Key
The lead story from the stock market this year may well be the outperformance of a narrow and select group of technology companies, however the leading economic story this year may be the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of the Federal Reserve’s concerted effort to rein in growth via higher interest rates.
Debt Drama Update
Many people believe the world’s largest and most important economy is on the brink of default. Indeed, politicians generally do a disservice by pushing their agenda until the last minute and then lose the trust of their constituents and investors. However, negotiations on the debt ceiling have improved over the last few days and the risk of default has decreased.
March Madness Started Early This Year
One year ago this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since the pandemic began. After two years of holding rates near zero, this first hike to combat rising inflation only raised the policy rate by a mere 0.25%.
Higher Inflation. Higher Fed Funds. Lower Stock Valuations.
We are expecting inflation to cool as we move throughout 2023, but we also know that it won’t move in a straight line. The Fed’s favored inflation index is called the personal consumer expenditures index (PCE).
JOLT to the Job Market
Jerome Powell has the most difficult job in America. The Fed Chairman and the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee are tasked with lowering inflation and they primarily have only one blunt tool to accomplish this goal, adjusting interest rates.
Third Quarter Earnings Season Kicks Off
U.S. stocks ended higher this week as investors digested news of solid corporate earnings against a more hawkish-than-expected Fed and better-than-expected labor data. Throughout the year, rising rates and macroeconomic headwinds overwhelmingly pressured asset prices and valuations, even for companies that have demonstrated earnings resilience.
Fourth Quarter 2022 Investment Strategy Video: Bad News Is Good News
George Hosfield, CFA, shares our fourth quarter 2022 Investment Strategy video, in which he discusses the Fed raising interest rates in an effort to combat inflation and what that means for investors.
Fourth Quarter 2022 Market Letter: Bad News Is Good News
Read our Market Letter publication for the fourth quarter 2022 titled, Bad News Is Good News, in which George Hosfield, CFA, Peter Jones, CFA, and Joe Herrle, CFA, share our thoughts on inflation, interest rates, the energy sector and housing supply in the United States.
Can't Catch a Break
The hotter-than-expected August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released this week was a shock to financial markets, as other recent measures had suggested a moderation of inflationary pressures. While there is clear evidence that energy and gasoline costs have declined since earlier this summer, broad-based increases observed in major categories like food (14% of CPI) and shelter (32% of CPI) reinforce that significant and upward price momentum remains intact.
The Funambulist Fed
This year has been anything but straightforward for investors, and the most recent Fed minutes are prolonging this state of confusion. While we have seen some reduced inflation pressure in the last several weeks, the Fed minutes point out that “risks to inflation were weighted to the upside,” citing factors such as further supply chain disruptions, continued geopolitical turmoil and persistent real wage growth. For investors, the focus continues to surround the pace of Fed rate hikes for the remainder of the year.
Bond Math
Principal and Head of Fixed Income, Brad Houle, CFA, discusses the math at work in fixed income investing and the relationship between bonds and interest rates.
Daibes Higgins on KOIN Wallet Wednesday
Krystal Daibes Higgins, CFA, appeared on KOIN News Wallet Wednesday on July 27, 2022, and discussed the recent Fed Hike, inflation and gas prices.