George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "Awaiting the Score." In the video, he discusses how the Fed is shifting its focus to the labor market.
Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "We’ve Landed."
The summer season is fast approaching, and this typically brings feelings of excitement and relaxation; a time of year that many people spend months looking forward to. However, these positive feelings may not translate to all facets of life.
The world of investing is welcoming a new generation: Gen Z. A recent study by the FINRA Foundation and the CFA Institute found that a whopping 56% of Gen Z are already invested, with many starting younger than any generation before them. This tech-savvy group is also turning to social media for investment information, making their approach quite different from those of us who entered the market during or after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).
The first three weeks of the second quarter have been tough for both equity and bond investors. After a great start to the year, there hasn't been any place for investors to hide in April. The chart below highlights that the three major equity classes, as well as bonds, have all posted negative returns, with Small Caps now down close to 4% for the year.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of goods and services prices across the economy, and a popular gauge of inflation. The headline CPI rose 3.5% in March from a year earlier, which was higher than economists had forecast and an increase from February’s 3.2% reading. The Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, also rose more than expected, with medical care and auto insurance boosting the non-housing service prices.
Head of Fixed Income and Principal Brad Houle, CFA, presents the firm's quarterly Investment Strategy titled, "So Far, So Good." In the video he discusses how the Fed's fight on inflation is faring, our belief that commercial real estate is not similar to residential real estate circa 2008 and investors' expectations for earnings for the remainder of the year.
We present Market Letter publication for the second quarter 2024 titled “So Far, So Good” in which Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, outlines our belief the Fed remains on course to deliver an ever-so-rare soft landing to this inflationary cycle. Dean Dordevic writes about the Japanese economy and Warren Buffett’s investment there in recent years since the introduction of the “Corporate Governance Code” and Jason Norris, CFA, provides an update on equity market valuations and how investors expect the market to grow for the remainder of the year.
The most prominent news for the markets this week came from semiconductor company Nvidia, as they announced their most recent earnings. Nvidia is at the tip of the spear for the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence investing. The company’s dominant market share in the chips used to train artificial intelligence models and build out artificial intelligence infrastructure has driven exorbitant growth for the company in the last couple of years.
It was an action-packed week in the capital markets headlined by the Federal Reserve’s first meeting of 2024. The central bank decided to leave their benchmark interest rate unchanged at a 23-year high – a level at which it has been since July of last year.
All investor eyes were on the jobs report today and per usual, the economic data did—and did not—disappoint. The most recent report outpaced expectations, with 216,000 more jobs created in December compared to the estimate of 170,000.
As we wrap up 2023, we always like to look back on the year in the markets and put the last 12 months in perspective. In December 2022, the S&P 500 had just finished an 8% rally from the October lows. With stocks still down close to 20% for the year, the outlook for 2023 looked bleak as forecasts by economists were overwhelmingly skewed toward recession.
In recent months, we have received a number of questions from clients regarding the possibility of another housing crisis. While we do not see a housing crash like the one experienced in 2008, there is a different type of disruption in the residential real estate market.
The holiday-shortened week was chock full of drama … all centered around both the market’s current mania (artificial intelligence) and the market’s favorite pandemic era mania (cryptocurrency). A strong third quarter earnings season, favorable inflation data and a moderation of long-term interest rates have all contributed to a stellar month for the stock market which is now within 5% of its all-time high, which was reached in December 2021. We will all be giving thanks if recent momentum continues into the end of the year.
Further evidence of slowing inflation amid moderating retail sales lent additional credence to the economic soft landing narrative this week, exactly 18 months after the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat high prices. Meanwhile, retailers book-ended third quarter earnings season in generally encouraging fashion, putting finishing touches on a surprisingly upbeat reporting period that now tallies positive revenue growth for the S&P 500 and over 6% earnings per share expansion.
Spooky season was in full force this week with contradictory messages from the economy versus the stock market. The week was chock-full of news with over 40% of the S&P 500 market capitalization reporting third quarter earnings, the release of third quarter economic growth, and finally, fresh data on the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index.
Last week, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield reached 4.8%, the highest since June 2007. Bonds reached another milestone last week when the aggregate bond index posted its 38 consecutive monthly drawdown, marking this the longest bond bear market on record. The specific forces pulling the levers of the bond market are numerous, and the math is complex.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
The lead story from the stock market this year may well be the outperformance of a narrow and select group of technology companies, however the leading economic story this year may be the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of the Federal Reserve’s concerted effort to rein in growth via higher interest rates.
Many people believe the world’s largest and most important economy is on the brink of default. Indeed, politicians generally do a disservice by pushing their agenda until the last minute and then lose the trust of their constituents and investors. However, negotiations on the debt ceiling have improved over the last few days and the risk of default has decreased.
