Over the last week, the tariff rhetoric hit a heightened level with the threat of 25% tariffs on products coming in from Mexico and Canada, as well as 10% on China.
Tariff Tantrum
A Market Moving Week: Both at Home and Abroad
As the calendar turned to the final quarter of 2024, there was plenty of economic and geopolitical news for investors to digest.
Rotation
Since the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on July 11, the stock market has experienced a noticeable shift in leadership as the inflation rate continues to move toward the Fed’s target of 2%. Investors have been moving away from technology stocks, which have been the darlings of the market this year, towards small-cap and value stocks.
Is China's Economic Dream in Trouble?
Gracing the cover of Time Magazine in 2017, famed political author and Eurasia Group founder, Ian Bremmer claimed “China Won.” This statement was not necessarily controversial, as economists and political pundits all but guaranteed a new age of geopolitical and economic dominance led by the fast-growing nation.
Groundhog Day
In recent months, investors have understandably been obsessing over the Fed and inflation. This week was action-packed for the markets, with the Fed meeting and October employment report taking place. Writing about the Fed has come to feel like Groundhog Day…
Changing Seasons
As autumn dawned this week, investors witnessed the first move by a developed market’s central bank to raise interest rates since the COVID-19 pandemic began. No, the Fed didn’t raise rates. Rather, it was Norway’s central bank that moved its short-term interest rate target off the zero bound, citing improved economic activity that no longer justifies such monetary policy accommodation.
A Slow Healing Process
All day and every day we are bombarded by economic, company and political news. And not just U.S. news, but global news as well. Even in normal times this can seem overwhelming, and especially so during a pandemic.
The Global Economy is Healing
Economic signals indicate that the recovery has begun around the world. As expected, China has been the first to emerge from recession, and their economy is moving forward.
The Great Disconnect
There has been a decade's worth of world events in the last three months. An oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, growing tension and trade disputes with China, a global pandemic and this week the worst domestic civil unrest in a generation.
White Knuckles
The rollercoaster ride continued this week as stocks moved at least 2 percent every day; however, with all of that volatility the S&P 500 was up 1 percent.
Cross Currents
A mixed set of economic data set against ongoing news of coronavirus infections sent stocks and bonds in opposite directions. As quarantines and lost production in China begin to impact supply chains and the likes of Apple, bonds continued their long tenured ascent, helping offset the week’s equity losses for those investors with a well-diversified portfolio.
Hope is Not Lost, It is Found
While many eyes were on the impeachment proceedings this past week, we saw encouraging retail sales data and the prospect of a completed trade deal with China push equity markets to another all-time high this week. Even as these new highs are met, many investors have a bad feeling about the market.
Glass Half Full
With some 90 percent of the S&P 500 having now reported third quarter earnings, investors have responded favorably to a plurality of companies delivering better than expected numbers.
Investment Strategy Video Fourth Quarter 2019: Holding Pattern
A Cycle Within a Cycle
The U.S. economy has been expanding for over 10 years, the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. When looking back, the bull run in stocks and the economic expansion may seem “easy” but there have been multiple periods of angst as we flirted with slow growth.
Significant Risks
For the week, the S&P 500 returned -1.41 percent and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield declined to 1.51 percent. On Friday, the S&P 500 declined by more than 2.5 percent on news that China had escalated the trade war which was coupled with a similar response from the White House.
The “Swoosh" of the Inverted Yield Curve
We were in consensus regarding our 2019 Investment Outlook theme, “The Fasten Seatbelt Sign Is On,” and this week’s market volatility reinforced that we landed on the right message. The Dow was down by 600 on Tuesday and then rallied by nearly 1,000 points within 24 hours.
Long Live the U.S. Consumer
This morning the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the second quarter GDP estimate and, while growth was down 3.1 percent from the first quarter, it was still a healthy 2.1 percent with consumer and government spending that was strong.
Investment Strategy Video Third Quarter 2019: Mounting Headwinds
A Curve Ball in May
As first quarter reporting season draws to another constructive close, investors’ attention was ripped away from the earnings scorecard and refocused almost exclusively on trade.