by Tim Carkin, CAIA, CMT
Senior Vice President
Years ago, a market technician compared the markets to a car windshield. In this analogy, an investor is in the driver’s seat looking out for future obstacles or opportunities in the “road” ahead, such as discounting future earnings, economic data or signs of a recession. However, as any good driver knows, the rearview mirror is also in view, giving us a glimpse of what recently passed. This week’s “rearview” economic numbers look like a demolition derby and that shook confidence in the market. Current valuations show the road ahead does not look nearly as treacherous.
A Stressful Rearview: Hotter-Than-Expected Economic Numbers
Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Labor released the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 1.3% from May, resulting in a dramatic 9.1% year-over-year increase; the biggest since 1981. The report showed broad inflationary jumps compared to 12 months ago: core inflation (excluding food and energy) remains stubbornly high at 5.9%, and the “cost of living” segment consisted of unwelcome findings: the “Food at home” and “Gasoline” categories were up 12% and nearly 60%, respectively.
One day after the June CPI was announced, the Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, almost set a record high, up 11.3% over a year ago. Much of that increase can be attributed to the price of energy. Excluding energy and food, the Core PPI was up 6.4%, which was lower than expected. Though the readings continue to be high, the month-over-month gains are dropping, reassuring news to consumers who would otherwise shoulder passed-along price increases as businesses try to avoid the impact of inflation in the months ahead.
Investors’ knee jerk response to these two high readings were to increase the odds of a 1% rate hike close to 50%, a first since the Fed started using the federal funds rate as a target for monetary policy. Temperament has cooled and odds are back to predicting a 75-basis point move at the next Fed meeting.
Even in the face of inflation levels not seen in decades consumers were out shopping in June. Retail sales numbers increased 1% and the prior month’s reading was revised up. However, during the same month, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment hit the lowest level ever recorded. While consumers are frustrated with inflation, it has not translated to a significant reduction in spending. This means when inflation pressures subside, the odds are consumer sentiment will rise resulting in increased consumer spending, a driving force in our economy.
Focusing on the Road Ahead
June is now in the rearview. Mid-June we saw oil prices top $120 a barrel, natural gas at $9 per million British thermal units and the average for a gallon of gas in the U.S. topped $5. Right now, we are in a different place: oil is under $100, natural gas is $6.80 and a gallon of gas is $0.50 cheaper than it was one month ago. These inflation numbers in the rearview may appear daunting but ahead the road appears a little less rough. Inflation for the next few months should come in lower as commodity prices have retreated.
Takeaways for the Week
June CPI and PPI numbers were elevated, but July readings should be lower
Odds of a 100-basis point rate hike have receded as the markets are pricing in a 75-basis point hike at the next Fed meeting
The stock market rallied on the U.S. Retail Sales report to finish a turbulent week down 1%