“Tell me where earnings are going, and I’ll tell you where the markets are going” is common phrase you’ve heard from us over the years.
The Writing on the Wall
The Economy: Growing but Slowing
It’s the tail-end of the first quarter of 2019 earnings reporting season and the results have been better than expected. While corporate earnings growth was up 22 percent in 2018 due in part to tax cuts, this year those same cuts will provide limited benefits and corporate earnings growth is expected to only be up around 5 percent for the full-year 2019.
Smoke on the Water
As the Western states struggle with wildfires and the Southeastern states get pounded by hurricanes, the stock market quietly made new highs. The S&P rallied this week 1.4 percent, closing in on the psychologically important 2,500. Conversely, bonds felt the swing into equities with rates on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rising 13 basis points to 2.20 percent.