It’s been just over a month since the U.S. presidential election, and financial markets continue to be influenced by anticipation for the incoming administration in Washington D.C.
Turning the Page
Trick or Treat
Chocolate-loving parents may be in for a sour surprise as they rummage through their children’s Halloween candy this year. With cocoa prices double the levels seen last year, food companies are getting creative, reducing the size of chocolate bars and adding more non-chocolate treats to their Halloween candy bags for sale. Trick-or-treaters weren’t the only ones to experience an eventful week, as an action-packed capital markets provided investors with their own bag of surprises to unpack.
A Lot to Digest
A bank failure, a rate hike and a surprisingly strong jobs number all led to volatile equity markets this week, with negative returns led by energy stocks and regional banks. We’ll first discuss the takeover of First Republic bank, then the effect of the Fed’s actions mid-week. Finally, we’ll hit on the employment numbers for April.
Turning the Page
After being caught flat-footed by inflation last year, the Federal Reserve maintains a steely resolve to ensure that the beginnings of slowing inflation witnessed last fall continue in 2023. Following the stock market’s worst year since 2008 and the worst year ever for bonds, investors are hoping for better days in 2023.
Just Keep Swimming ... Just Keep Swimming
In the Pixar classic Finding Nemo, the characters Dory and Marlin were hovering over a trench, the black unknown below, and they had just lost their last hope of finding Marlin’s son, Nemo.
Are We There Yet?
“Are we there yet?” is a familiar back seat refrain that often occurs during long, summertime road trips involving bored children and their beleaguered parents. As we transition through our second COVID-affected summer, this frustration is also felt by investors and other market participants who long for some return to “normal.” Surely, we must all be there by now, right?
Easing Into Summer
A quiet week on Wall Street feels like just what the doctor ordered ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend. Stocks remain well bid and within striking distance of new highs ahead of what will be a busier week of economic data.
Reinflation and Rotation
Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report spotlighted the difference between Wall Street and Main Street. The net loss of 140,000 jobs in December, driven by the loss of 372,000 restaurants and bar workers, was balanced by the increasing employment in other sectors of the economy, notably the manufacturing sector. These sectors continue to heal from the wrenching effects of the pandemic that took hold in last year’s first quarter.
Show Me the Money
The Friday job report was slightly on the light side with December payrolls coming in at 156,000, 19,000 below economist’s estimates. Positively, the previous two months showed 19,000 in upward revisions. However, wages grew at their highest rate since June 2009, coming in at 2.9 percent year-over-year growth.