In our Investment Outlook 2025 events, we will share our thoughts on the real estate market and the opportunities ahead. While the commercial real estate sector appeared to hit bottom early last year, it showed a positive trend in the latter half, with core real estate values increasing 6% per the Green Street Commercial Property Index (Green Street CPPI). As mentioned in previous publications, we favor opportunities in industrial warehouses, apartments and data centers, which saw values increase last year. However, our publications have not as deeply explored one segment of commercial real estate (CRE): office space.
Market Letter Third Quarter 2024
We present the third quarter 2024 Market Letter publication titled, “We’ve Landed,” featuring articles written by George Hosfield, CFA, Dean Dordevic and Joe Herrle, CFA.
Commercial is not 2008 Residential
As we move further into 2024, the commercial real estate (CRE) market continues to attract investors’ attention. Often, when the Federal Reserve increases short-term interest rates rapidly, as in this cycle, some aspect of the capital markets or asset class breaks. CRE is the primary suspect for a crisis in this cycle.
In the Spotlight
As the first quarter of 2023 wrapped up this week, investors may be surprised to see both stocks and bonds with positive returns, given the ongoing stress within the banking industry and the signs that the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes are creating cracks within the economy.
Post-COVID Commercial Real Estate
We are beginning to see the end of the pandemic as U.S. vaccine distribution begins this week. In addition, our research partner, Evercore ISI Research, is projecting that 100 million people will be vaccinated by end of the first quarter. Along with this victory comes predictions for the unfolding outcome for post-pandemic commercial real estate. The big debate centers around the persistence of the “work from home” trend permanently impacting demand for office space.
Commercial Real Estate’s Perfect Storm
The COVID-19 crisis has been the perfect storm for commercial real estate. While the economy is showing signs of life as most of the country reopens, the shock to the commercial real estate market was unprecedented.
Tapping the Commercial Real Estate Market
The equity markets were higher by about 1.3 percent compared to last week as investors absorbed fourth quarter earnings and reacted to the changes in Washington. Interest rates were higher, with the 10-year Treasury climbing in yield from 2.39 percent to 2.49 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 20,000 this week but the real story is how long it took to get here.