Fed Taper Brings Risk to Mortgage Bonds Unseen in Treasuries
For all the talk that Janet Yellen’s plan to shrink the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet will hurt Treasuries, U.S. mortgage bonds face a bigger test.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
Fed Taper Brings Risk to Mortgage Bonds Unseen in Treasuries
For all the talk that Janet Yellen’s plan to shrink the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet will hurt Treasuries, U.S. mortgage bonds face a bigger test.
A White House in Turmoil, The Fed Shifting Policy: Treasuries Are Actually Calm About It
For all the turmoil roiling Washington, D.C. from the Federal Reserve to the White House, and Treasury bonds, typically a go-to segment of the financial markets when you’re looking for a pessimistic take on the day’s affairs, appear unusually placid.
Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its monthly employment statistics. Especially with the presidential election in full swing, the state of the jobs market is on people’s minds. Let’s step back from today’s numbers and look at the employment over this economic cycle.
PORTLAND, Ore. – June 3, 2014 – For the fourth consecutive year, several Ferguson Wellman portfolio managers have been recognized as Five Star Wealth Managers by Portland Monthly magazine. Nathan Ayotte, CFP®, Ralph Cole, CFA, Helena Lankton and Jason Norris, CFA, were among the professionals honored. This adds to others in our firm who have been listed as Five Star Wealth Managers, including Dean Dordevic, Lori Flexer, CFA, Marc Fovinci, CFA, Steve Holwerda, CFA, George Hosfield, CFA, Mark Kralj, and Jim Rudd. The Five Star Wealth Manager distinction is a select award recognizing wealth managers that provide quality services to clients, with approximately 13 percent of the wealth managers in the greater Portland area earning this designation.
“We are very pleased that so many of our portfolio managers have been recognized by Portland Monthly and Five Star Professionals for this award,” said Jim Rudd, principal and chief executive officer. “This honor speaks to the investment expertise and experience these professionals bring to our clients.”
The Five Star Wealth Manager designation is based upon 10 objective eligibility and evaluation criteria, ranging from credentials to regulatory history to client retention, that are associated with wealth managers who provide quality service to their candidates. Candidates with “an established practice, good client relationships and a strong reputation” are nominated by peers and firms and verified against the criteria (source: Five Star Wealth Manager Award Program Summary and Research Methodology).
Founded in 1975, Ferguson Wellman Capital Management is a privately owned registered investment adviser that serves more than 650 clients with assets starting at $3 million. The firm works with individuals and institutions in 35 states with a concentration of those clients in the West. Ferguson Wellman manages $3.9 billion that comprises retirement plans; endowments and foundations; and separately managed accounts for individuals and families. In 2013, West Bearing Investments was established, a division of Ferguson Wellman, that manages investment portfolios starting at $750,000. All company information listed above reflects 3/31/14 data.
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The Five Star Wealth Manager award, administered by Crescendo Business Services, LLC (dba Five Star Professional), is based on 10 objective criteria: 1. Credentialed as a registered investment adviser or a registered investment adviser representative; 2. Active as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of 5 years; 3. Favorable regulatory and complaint history review (As defined by Five Star Professional, the wealth manager has not: A. Been subject to a regulatory action that resulted in a license being suspended or revoked, or payment of a fine; B. Had more than a total of three customer complaints filed against them [settled or pending] with any regulatory authority or Five Star Professional’s consumer complaint process; C. Individually contributed to a financial settlement of a customer complaint filed with a regulatory authority; D. Filed for personal bankruptcy; E. Been convicted of a felony); 4. Fulfilled their firm review based on internal standards; 5. Accepting new clients; 6. One-year client retention rate; 7. Five-year client retention rate; 8. Non-institutional discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9. Number of client households served; 10. Educational and professional designations. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or awarded. Once awarded, wealth managers may purchase additional profile ad space or promotional products. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided and is not indicative of the winner’s future performance. 1,558 Portland wealth managers were considered for the award; 190 (13 percent of candidates) were named Five Star Wealth Managers.
Treasuries Hold Losses as Ukraine Tension Eases Before Jobs Data By Kevin Buckland and Mariko Ishikawa
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries maintained the biggest gain since November amid speculation the crisis in Ukraine will ease, and before U.S. data this week forecast to show employers stepped up hiring.
Australian and Japanese government bonds retreated after Russian President Vladimir Putin said yesterday that there’s no immediate need to invade eastern Ukraine, limiting demand for havens. Treasury 10-year yields rebounded from a one-month low, surging back above their 200-day moving average after dipping below the mark this week for the first time since May.
“If the Ukraine situation de-escalates further, we should see higher rates, and that’s what we’re expecting,” said Marc Fovinci, head of fixed income in Portland, Oregon, at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management Inc., which has $3.5 billion in assets. “There’s still a risk-aversion premium in Treasuries.”
The U.S. 10-year yield was little changed at 2.69 percent as of 6:51 a.m. in London from yesterday, when it rose 0.1 percentage point, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 2.75 percent note due February 2024 traded at 100 17/32.
Yesterday’s jump in 10-year yields was the biggest on a closing basis since Nov. 8. They touched 2.59 percent on March 3, the lowest since Feb. 4. A break above 2.7 percent would “mark a near-term yield base,” Credit Suisse Group AG analysts David Sneddon and Christopher Hine wrote in research today.
Australia’s 10-year government bond yields rose for a second day, climbing six basis points to 4.06 percent after the nation’s economy expanded faster than estimated. Japan’s 10-year benchmark yield rose one basis point to 0.61 percent.
Crimea Crisis
Russia would use the military only in “an extreme case,” Putin said in a press conference yesterday, signaling the crisis that provoked a standoff with the West and roiled global markets won’t immediately escalate.
Russian intervention in Crimea, which the U.S. condemned as a breach of Ukraine’s sovereignty, sparked demand for bonds of developed countries from the U.S. to Japan for their perceived safety, overshadowing the prospect of higher yields as the U.S. recovery gathers pace.
Treasuries are on track for their best quarter since the three months that ended in June 2012 after turmoil in emerging markets from Argentina to Turkey spurred demand for haven assets. The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index (BUSY) has gained 1.8 percent since the end of last year.
U.S. Jobs
U.S. employers hired 150,000 workers in February, after adding 113,000 in January, according to a Bloomberg News survey before the Labor Department releases the figures on March 7. A report from ADP Research Institute today will show companies boosted payrolls by 155,000 last month after an increase of 175,000 in January, a separate Bloomberg poll estimates.
Employment gains for December and January were both less than economists forecast, depressed by winter storms.
“There’ll be some pretty severe weather impact on payrolls, making it another month of hard to interpret numbers,” said Ferguson Wellman’s Fovinci. “There are no roadblocks in the way of economic growth that we’ve seen.”
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated on Feb. 27 that the central bank is likely to keep curtailing its stimulus. The central bank said on Dec. 18 it would trim its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, before cutting by another $10 billion in January. The purchases are designed to hold down long-term borrowing costs and spur economic growth.