With the impeachment inquiry being announced this week, clients have been asking, “What does this mean for my investments?” The short answer: markets trade on economic fundamentals, not political headlines.
Whistleblower Markets
Growing... but Slowing
Earlier in this expansion it was all about jobs. Each month, we would wring our collective hands over how many jobs were created, what kind of jobs were created and whether they were even good jobs. Today, while it is still a market moving number, the monthly payroll report doesn’t seem to carry as much mindshare with Wall Street.
Rumors of the Market’s Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
On Wednesday at midday, the global financial media held their collective breath as the benchmark U.S. Treasury Yield Spread (2-year/10-year yield) inverted. Then, as they exhaled, minor hysteria ensued.
This Will Get Your Attention
We have continued to closely monitor economic indicators for tariff-related impacts on business confidence but up to now it didn’t seem to have affected sentiment. However, that narrative seems to be changing, and we expect the administration will take note.
The Economy: Growing but Slowing
It’s the tail-end of the first quarter of 2019 earnings reporting season and the results have been better than expected. While corporate earnings growth was up 22 percent in 2018 due in part to tax cuts, this year those same cuts will provide limited benefits and corporate earnings growth is expected to only be up around 5 percent for the full-year 2019.
Bonds 101
Bonds are, at their core, less complex and more easily understood than most clients might assume. While “interest rates” and “bond yields” make them sound complicated, bonds can be boiled down quite simply: bonds are loans.
Closing the Gap
One of the four takeaways from our 2019 Economic Outlook is “Increased Turbulence” which has been in full force this winter. In December, the S&P 500 lost 13.5 percent, including the “Christmas Eve Massacre,” making it the worst December since 1931. In a complete reversal, the market returned 8 percent in January, representing the best January return in 30 years.
Turning the Page
As we look back on 2018, we can summarize the year as one where volatility emerged at the same time equity markets and the economy diverged enormously. In fact, 2018 is estimated to produce the strongest economic growth since the Global Financial Crisis at 3.0 percent.
Walking Slowly in a Dark Room
When the Federal Reserve meets next week, everyone will be waiting to hear what they have to say about future interest rate hikes.
Market Seesaw
With a week subdued by a day of mourning, traders hoped market volatility would follow suit: it did not. In less than three trading sessions the S&P 500 traded down five percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 1,400 points and small cap stocks lost 6 percent.
Slowing, Not Shrinking
As the U.S. expansion draws closer to becoming the longest on record, a number of economic and political risks have emerged or intensified in recent months, leading to global equity market weakness.
The Way It Is
It was a busy week in Washington with a highly anticipated midterm election followed by the Federal Reserve meeting. The results of both came in as expected although it seems the markets were not synced to that result.