Would you have believed us if we had told you on January 1 that the S&P 500 would be up nearly 10% year-to-date after last year’s 25% jump?
The End of an Era
Not So Fast, My Friend
As we enter the final stretch of the college football season, the quote, “Not so fast, my friend,” from ESPN’s College GameDay analyst Lee Corso, accurately captures the week’s capital markets events. After a weaker-than-expected October jobs report and the U.S. Federal Reserve leaving rates unchanged, investors are confident the Fed is done raising interest rates and have quickly shifted their sights to the first rate cut.
Last Hike of the Season
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate this week by 0.25% to 5.25 – 5.50%, marking the eleventh increase since March of 2022, bringing the interest rate to its highest level in 22 years.
Better Late Than Never
On Wednesday, days before the U.S. is projected to run out of money to pay its bills, the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 in a bipartisan effort. The final vote of 314- 177 received support from 149 Republicans and 165 Democrats. With both sides making concessions, it’s not surprising to see members of each party voicing their displeasure with the deal.
In the Spotlight
As the first quarter of 2023 wrapped up this week, investors may be surprised to see both stocks and bonds with positive returns, given the ongoing stress within the banking industry and the signs that the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes are creating cracks within the economy.
The Fed Hike Begins
Last week, the Federal Reserve made headlines after raising their benchmark interest rate by 0.25%. This week, the Fed remains in the spotlight due to comments made by Chairman Jerome Powell at Monday’s National Association for Business Economics annual conference.
Under the Hood (of Capital Markets)
Inflation was front and center this week with the release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Inflation of 7% Headline and 5.5% Core (ex Food and Energy) were in line with consensus expectations.
Season of Spending
After months of debate, President Biden chose to take the bipartisan route nominating Jerome Powell to serve a second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chairman.