by Timothy D. Carkin, CAIA, CMT
Senior Vice President
For the fourth consecutive week, stocks posted negative returns with the S&P 500 trading near 3,220 for most of this week. Market technicians would view this as a technical support level or a base from which the market can work. At the current levels, the market can consolidate and take a breath to prepare for what is next. As a reminder, the last time the market was at this level was only four months ago on June 8 when the market made a near-term peak at 3,232. Shortly after in mid-July, that value was eclipsed and the markets pushed higher, buoyed by the hopes of a potential vaccine and reopening economy. While confidence appears to have ebbed, the September selloff has just brought us back to the June level, a time before the news of a vaccine took hold. As the market “takes a breath,” we look ahead through the end of the year.
Autumnal Equinox
While weather does not factor in our investment decisions, historians would agree the change in seasons from summer to fall typically hasn’t fared well for the markets. The Stock Trader’s Almanac has tracked historical market performance since at least 1926 and the worst string of days on the calendar almost always appears to be September 22 through 27. Historically, September is the worst month of the calendar year, down -0.7 percent as can be seen in the chart below. Since 1926, it is the only month to average negative returns.
Source: Bloomberg
There is no quantitative reason for this “September Effect” but some attribute this to investors returning from summer vacations only to fret about the end of year. Some say they reposition their portfolios for year-end, taking profits in “high flying” stocks and selling losers to harvest losses. Others say it has to do with mutual fund and hedge fund fiscal years ending September 30, resulting in investors repositioning their portfolios for their annual statements. Whatever the reason, this year’s market selloff is not unprecedented. To add a light at the end of the tunnel, looking at the same chart above, we are heading into seasonally better months — since 1926, 67 percent of Novembers and 77 percent of Decembers have been positive.
Week in Review and Our Takeaways:
The stock market fell for the fourth straight week as the dollar rallied
This September selloff brought the markets down to early summer levels and, even though it has been a bumpy ride, stocks are still up 1.5 percent year-to-date
The “September Effect” has shown seasonal weakness in the latter part of the month