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Cole Quoted in the Portland Business Journal Regarding Angel Investors

The Portland Business Journal Q&A: Ralph Cole on How New Angels Can Get Their Wings

February 28, 2014

by Malia Spencer

Startups can be risky investments, so for those considering investing in the space there are some critical elements to think about.

What is your risk tolerance? Since the money can be tied up for years, are you comfortable with illiquid investments? And perhaps most importantly, if you can’t afford to lose it all, you probably shouldn’t do it.

Ralph Cole, executive vice president, equity strategy and portfolio management for Ferguson Wellman Capital Management offers some of his insights on how his firm handles questions about this asset class.

How often do clients inquire about this type of investing?

A lot of our clients, if they made their money through their own business, which a lot of our clients did, and if they are involved in the startup community in Portland, they may take the lead themselves. It’s the guy that has never done it, but people know he has money, that comes to us and asks, “What do you think?” It’s not as often as you might think, several times a year at least.

What should people think about if they are exploring this option?

It’s really understanding your motivation for doing it. Are you doing it to help the community here in Oregon or are you doing it to help someone you know or is it just something that interests you. That will make a difference how you view it as an investment.

What kinds of questions should they ask their financial adviser?

Actually, we end up asking the questions and then help them understand the perimeters of the investment. Do you want your exposure to be limited? What slice of the portfolio do you want tied to it and how much more commitment do you have to make if these go south? How involved do you want to be — a lot of angel investment funds want you to be involved.

How much of a portfolio do people look at for this type of investment?

There is no rule of thumb, but it’s what we consider venture capital. The venture slice for us is 2 percent or 3 percent of a portfolio, not much more than that. The more you have the more you can afford to put into it because it is so high risk. It comes down to how much are you willing to lose. This can be the highest returns in the portfolio but it is the most volatile.

With headlines like Facebook’s $19 billion acquisition of WhatsApp and other high profile tech startup stories, is that fueling interest?

This happens at every part of the cycle, you start early out of a recession and people are nervous and wary, but they start to see other investments doing well and start to feel better about the economy and are now willing to look at what else is out there. They see headlines that tech is booming and people want to know how to get in it. But those investments (in high profile deals) were made years ago. The time to think about it is at the bottom (of the cycle).

Angel investing: risks, rewards

52%: Amount of angel investment exits that returned less than the capital invested.

7%: Amount of exits that produced returns 10 times the amount invested.

 

 

Money Talks

Jason Norris of Ferguson Wellman by Jason Norris, CFA Executive Vice President of Research

Money Talks

Earlier this week, Facebook anted up close to $20 billion (with a capital B) to purchase WhatsApp, a mobile texting company. The company is estimated to gross $300 million in revenues this year and $500 million in 2015 by charging $0.99 per year to allow users to by-pass texting fees from their wireless provider. One can argue if the price will be “worth it” for Facebook, but we do know that WhatsApp’s 50 employees are pleased.

This deal is just one of the several major merger and acquisition (M&A) deals we have seen this year. On top of the Facebook deal, over the last week we saw a major take-out for Forest Labs, talk of Safeway going private, and Comcast bidding for Time Warner Cable. Corporate America is flush with cash and, as we forecasted, is putting it to work. Industry analysts have yet to declare that we are off to the races for M&A, but confidence is improving.

Modern Day Cowboy

Move over Henry Ford, here comes Elon Musk, the CEO and Chief Product Architect for Tesla Motors. The high-end electric car maker continues to push the limits on manufacturing and innovation.  While global demand is picking up and Tesla has been ramping up production to meet these needs, profitability and valuation are key determinants of a good stock, on top of a good company. One can get caught up in the hype of the revolutionary envelope Tesla pushes on a manufacturing basis (check out this video for a demonstration). Is a good company necessarily a good stock?  When you look at the value investors are giving Tesla, it is $817k per vehicle sold. The auto average is $13k. One could argue that Tesla should command a premium, but the current premium may be a little too rich for our taste.

Baby, It’s Cold Outside

The recent polar vortex that has affected most of the U.S. the last few weeks has impacted several economic indicators (as highlighted last week by Ralph Cole) as well as commodity prices, specifically natural gas. Natural gas prices in mid-January hovered around $4.00/btu. Since then, gas has spiked to over $6.00/btu. While this may have a short-term impact on the cost of energy, we do not foresee much more upside pressure to gas prices. At these levels, we are likely to see some shift in exploration and production from oil to gas since the cash flows at these prices can be very attractive. Therefore, as demand slows with warmer weather and more supply comes online, we would expect gas prices to trend lower.

This phenomenon in the U.S. has led to an energy/manufacturing renaissance. Low energy prices have allowed manufacturers to “on shore” their production because the costs have become more attractive. Especially those industries where natural gas is a major feedstock:  chemicals, fertilizer, etc. There are plans for 10 new ethane facilities (or crackers) in the U.S. due to the increased supply of energy and natural gas. This will result in a major increase in polyethylene supply, which is a major input for plastic, thus, lowering the cost for thousands of consumer and commercial products, while increasing jobs in the U.S.

Takeaways for the Week

  • M&A deals are starting to pick up and companies are paying premiums for growth
  • Low commodity prices and technological innovation is a boom for the U.S. economy, thus benefitting the U.S. consumer