detroit bankruptcy

Deidra Krys-Rusoff Quoted in Bloomberg Business News

Bloomberg Business Week Detroit Pension Proposal Would Shut Out New Hires

September 27, 2013

By Corey Williams

Hoping to stanch some of the red ink flowing from Detroit, its emergency manager is riling the workforce with a proposal to close the city's pension plans to new employees by the end of the year and move the city to a 401(k)-style system that has become the norm in the private sector.

Detroit's underfunded obligations of about $3.5 billion for pensions and $5.7 billion for retiree health coverage are part of the city's $18 billion debt load and a major reason emergency manager Kevyn Orr filed for bankruptcy protection in July.

Now, he wants to end pensions for new employees and freeze benefits to about 18,000 members. Non-taxable annuity savings will be closed to new employees and no future contributions would be accepted after Orr's proposed Dec. 31 "freeze date."

Non-vested active system members also will be frozen out by Dec. 31.

"They took my wages and now they're trying to take my pension," said Mike Mulholland, vice president of American Federation of State, City and Municipal Employees. "All of our people are saying 'what are they doing to us?'

"We've already given concession after concession, and now to be asked to give up more and be put in a defined contribution plan ... they want to force us to take something where we have no security when we retire."

Orr's pension plan has to be approved by Michigan Treasurer Andy Dillon and is one of the strongest challenges to unions in the one-time organized labor stronghold.

It also is likely to continue the parade of court challenges by union leaders who say changes to pensions and bargained health care benefits violate Michigan's Constitution.

But Orr counters that federal bankruptcy law trumps state law.

James McTevia, a Detroit-area turnaround expert, said he is not aware of a previous ruling on the matter, but adds it's clear what Orr is trying to do.

"He is following the natural process for a reorganization," said McTevia, of McTevia and Associates. "That sets up a mechanism to make changes to the entity's debt structure. If the city doesn't have the money to pay (into the pensions), what difference does the law make? If the city can't do it, it can't do it. That contract has to be rejected and another contract has to be entered into."

A draft of the pension proposal was given last week to the General Retirement System, which represents about 20,500 active and retired city workers. AFSCME Council 25 spokesman Ed McNeil said unions have not received the draft.

In it, the city also would contribute five percent of the base pay of non-uniformed workers to the 401-type pension plan.

Overtime, bonuses and longevity pay will not be factored into compensation as they have been in the past. The city will make no contributions to a deferred compensation plan in which participant contributions and earnings on retirement money are tax-deferred.

A separate plan for police and fire retirees still is being worked on and has not been presented to that pension system, said Bill Nowling, a spokesman for Orr.

"But it will be similar" to the General Retirement System plan, Nowling said.

The police and fire system has nearly 12,700 members.

The pension systems, city unions and individual retirees are fighting Orr in bankruptcy court. They don't believe he has proved Detroit is insolvent and complain that he hasn't bargained in good faith.

Mary Estell, a retired Department of Public Works employee, receives a pension of about $2,300 per month after 32 years with the city. She realizes the likelihood of getting more is unlikely.

"At this point, there is nothing we can do," Estell said of Orr's pension plan. "The city doesn't have any money, so we won't get any increase. If the bankruptcy doesn't go through, then maybe there's a chance we will get an increase in the future."

Orr's plan does not say how much would be saved, according to a draft of the proposal.

A spokeswoman for the pension system says officials still are studying the plan. "It really just caught us completely off guard," said Tina Bassett. "It was the first time we saw it."

But any changes could take as long as two decades to make a dent in how Detroit's long-term debt is structured, according to Michael Sweet, a bankruptcy attorney with Fox-Rothschild.

Moving from a defined benefit to a defined contribution plan "isn't going to change the savings tomorrow," Sweet said.

"Kevyn Orr is working on all sorts of different things. One is to address the short term issues and deal with the longer term imbalance of the budget."

Private companies long ago starting shedding plans that relied heavily on employer contributions in favor of those where workers decide how much of their pay they want socked away. As cities and states continue to buckle under the pension and health care liabilities, elected leaders are pushing for similar changes.

"Something has to be done because the pensions are extremely expensive and with the aging demographic, those costs just keep going up," said Deidra Krys-Rusoff, a portfolio manager with Ferguson Wellman, an Oregon-based capital management firm.

Black Friday Magic

Jason Norris of Ferguson Wellman by Jason Norris, CFA Senior Vice President of Research

Good Mourning Black Friday, Welcome Cyber Monday

Black Friday shopping numbers were not much to write home about, but it is uncertain if it is the state of the consumer or the “expansion” of Thanksgiving weekend specials to the day of turkey day or even before. Thirty-three percent of “Black Friday” shopping occurred on Thursday, up from 13 percent in 2011. Over the entire weekend, traffic remained healthy; however, sales were a bit below expectations (up 2.3 percent) and would have been negative if not for 15 percent growth in online sales over the weekend. The weakness was most notable in the Northeast.

The other phenomenon is the growth of Cyber Monday. Online sales that day (the Monday following Thanksgiving weekend) were up over 19 percent and are projected to be up 15 percent this holiday season. Online sales will account for 14 percent of the $600 billion expected to be spent this season. While Amazon.com continues to be the main beneficiary of this trend, valuation metrics can’t get us excited about the stock, but as consumers we continue to benefit.

Learning to Fly

Speaking of Amazon, its CEO Jeff Bezos was interviewed on 60 Minutes and pulled off a great publicity stunt to keep the e-commerce retailer in the news all week. If you haven’t already heard, Mr. Bezos announced that Amazon was looking at using unmanned drones to deliver packages. While Amazon has a reputation of being a visionary and willing to invest in growth, the near-term applications of this announcement seem more or less PR rather than delivery. We just hope it doesn’t get to the point where our kids can’t enjoy the snow during the holidays because they will have to be avoiding all the Amazon package deliveries from the sky.

Detroit Rock City

Looks like we are witnessing a slow motion car accident with the approval of a federal bankruptcy filing by the city of Detroit. Deidra Krys-Rusoff, Ferguson Wellman’s municipal bond analyst and portfolio manager, believes that with U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Steven Rhodes ruling that Detroit is eligible to file for bankruptcy protection it may permit them to emerge from $18 billion of debt. This ruling grants the city the power to establish a financial plan which will allow the city to provide public services while meeting adjusted debt obligations. Judge Rhodes also ruled that pensions may be adjusted under federal bankruptcy, despite the fact that Michigan’s constitution does not allow for cuts to established pension obligations. This ruling may permit the trimming of pensions and retirement benefits, taking away the “protected” status usually afforded to the plans and placing them on an equal platform to other creditors (such as bondholders).  We expect unions to fully challenge this decision, and the local union has already filed an appeal.

We believe that this event is isolated and should not have an overarching effect on the muni market. Any way you look at it though, this may end the same way as the 1976 classic song at some parties.

Stagefright

This week was the 17th anniversary of FED Chairman Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” speech, and investors are anxious for what to expect in 2014 after a 25 percent+ move in equities this year. While this week we have seen some weakness in stocks as rates have risen, we still don’t foresee a major sell off. Putting history in context, in the bull market run from 1990 through 1996, equities DID NOT have a 10 percent correction, and we didn’t peak until March 2000. We are not saying that history will repeat itself, but with the U.S. economy improving and inflation remaining tepid, we would be buyers of equities on any major pullback.

Our Takeaways for the Week:

  • Even though stocks have run, we are still constructive on equities
  • Any weakness in the municipal bond market should be seen as a buying opportunity for quality muni bonds.