George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
This week, Portland residents braved the cold to venture outside and watch snow blanket the city. In contrast, January's inflation data was seemingly the opposite, rising higher month-over-month and year-over-year. While the snowfall might have been a pleasant surprise for some Oregonians, this inflation data was anything but for most investors and consumers.
Last weekend, as my kids played in the park, a fellow dad struck up a conversation. During our talk, he sighed and asked, "Everything feels so expensive these days, doesn't it?" I’ve heard this sentiment frequently, from friends, family and clients who have expressed curiosity about the rising costs of everyday goods and services. While many individuals are feeling the strain on their finances, inflation measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), appear to be trending downward, showing a rosier economic picture. So why are people feeling the pinch?
To both economists and investors, one of the biggest surprises to begin 2023 has been the resilience of the economy, and in particular the labor market. Coming off the back of the most rapid Federal Reserve tightening cycle in decades, many assumed that economic data would prove recessionary as soon as the calendar flipped. While leading indicators still point to a slowing in the economy ahead, recession still seems a ways away.
In recent months, investors have understandably been obsessing over the Fed and inflation. This week was action-packed for the markets, with the Fed meeting and October employment report taking place. Writing about the Fed has come to feel like Groundhog Day…
This week, volatility returned to capital markets due to the recent emergence of the Omicron variant. Initial reports indicate Omicron shows increased transmissibility and mild symptoms, a “mixed bag” of changes over Delta. And while it will be several weeks before we see a more accurate picture of its impact on human health, capital markets immediately responded with increased stock market volatility and lower interest rates.
Earlier this week, my family and I were out to dinner when we saw a sign on the front door of the restaurant that read: “Being short staffed is the new pandemic… Thank you for your patience with us.” While we are familiar with the standard “help wanted” signs, specifically in the service sectors industry, you may have noticed a recent addition to these signs: signing bonuses.
