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Our Investment Views
Emilie Ma
Investment Strategy Video: Inflation's Flame ...

George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.

Investment Strategy Video: Inflation's Flame Flickers
Our Investment Views
Liz Swagerty Olsen
Investment Strategy Video: Stalemate

George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.

Investment Strategy Video: Stalemate
Our Investment Views
Liz Swagerty Olsen
Third Quarter 2022 Investment Strategy Video: ...

Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”

Third Quarter 2022 Investment Strategy Video: Balancing Act
Annual Report
Mary Faulkner
2021 Annual Report

2021 Annual Report

2021 Annual Report
Wealth Management
Liz Swagerty Olsen
First Quarter 2022 Wealth Management Insights ...

Mary Lago, CFP®, CTFA, discusses the theme for the first quarter of 2022, “Valuing the Resources of Time and Money.”

First Quarter 2022 Wealth Management Insights Video: Valuing the Resources of Time and Money

PCE

Home Sweet Home Economics: Decoding the Fed's Impact on Housing

Home Sweet Home Economics: Decoding the Fed's Impact on Housing

Recently, a realtor friend of mine shared that transaction volume was notably low due to high interest rates, resulting in a sluggish market. However, with last week’s Federal Reserve’s rates cut, he and likely others in the realty industry are hoping the housing market will be reenergized. While not everyone can buy or sell a house, home ownership is a prominent consideration when creating wealth. And while I’m not in the market to sell my house, I was curious about what is now occurring in the housing market.

Hawks vs. Stocks

Hawks vs. Stocks

It was an action-packed week headlined by Wednesday’s economic “doubleheader.” The Federal Reserve’s June meeting took place the same day as the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report.

Why Does Everything Feel So Expensive?

Why Does Everything Feel So Expensive?

Last weekend, as my kids played in the park, a fellow dad struck up a conversation. During our talk, he sighed and asked, "Everything feels so expensive these days, doesn't it?" I’ve heard this sentiment frequently, from friends, family and clients who have expressed curiosity about the rising costs of everyday goods and services. While many individuals are feeling the strain on their finances, inflation measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), appear to be trending downward, showing a rosier economic picture. So why are people feeling the pinch?

'Tis the Season for Tradition

'Tis the Season for Tradition

On December 1, we gather as a firm to commemorate and pay homage to the founders of Ferguson Wellman. We reflect on those who came before us and celebrate our shared vision for the future – we cherish this tradition and look forward to it every year. Traditions like this are an integral part of the holiday season, which officially kicked off with the year’s busiest shopping weekend. The number of Black Friday and Cyber Monday commercials, promotions and emails were staggering, but did consumers take the bait?

Mixed Signals

Mixed Signals

Spooky season was in full force this week with contradictory messages from the economy versus the stock market. The week was chock-full of news with over 40% of the S&P 500 market capitalization reporting third quarter earnings, the release of third quarter economic growth, and finally, fresh data on the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index.

Fed Pain

Fed Pain

Investors were expecting Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement of a .75% increase in short-term interest rates. However, they were unprepared for Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish press conference afterward, resulting in a decline in both the stock and bond markets.

Reinflation and Rotation

Reinflation and Rotation

Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report spotlighted the difference between Wall Street and Main Street. The net loss of 140,000 jobs in December, driven by the loss of 372,000 restaurants and bar workers, was balanced by the increasing employment in other sectors of the economy, notably the manufacturing sector. These sectors continue to heal from the wrenching effects of the pandemic that took hold in last year’s first quarter.

0-for-7

0-for-7

While yesterday was Major League Baseball’s Opening Day, this week’s 0-for-7 statistic unceremoniously belongs to the Federal Reserve for failing to achieve its 2 percent inflation target since it was established seven years ago.

Hard Versus Soft Data: By the Numbers

Hard Versus Soft Data: By the Numbers

Most markets, international stocks and the U.S. Dollar ended the week near where they started. Stocks are quietly ending a strong first quarter, with this week leaving the S&P 500 up a little over 1 percent and the Dow Jones up about 0.5 percent.

Spring Break Movies

by Tim Carkin, CAIA, CMT Senior Vice President

Divergent

This week the market is showing some interesting divergence. The S&P 500 performance is paltry, nearly flat on the year. Technology, biotech and consumer discretionary sectors, which are more heavily weighted in the NASDAQ, started selling off heavily last week leaving the NASDAQ down more than seven percent year to date. This week small cap stocks, which had been performing admirably, sold off more than four percent and are now negative on the year. Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and other large financials also sold off heavily after the Fed’s latest stress test results. On the plus side, emerging market stocks rallied significantly this week in hopes of new Chinese stimulus.

Need for Speed

A few good economic readings came out this week. Last month’s Q4 GDP number was revised up to an annualized 2.6 percent from 2.4 percent. This came as consumer spending in February rose by the most in three years and jobless claims declined last week to the lowest level in four months. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a favorite economic indicator of past Fed Chairman Bernanke ticked up 0.1 percent in February. Lower jobless claims and a low inflation rate give the Fed a little cushion to work with when considering stimulus and rate increases.

Rise of an Empire?

The constant media attention of developments in the standoff between Ukraine and Russian is weighing on the market. We did get good news on that front in an announcement from the IMF of $14-18 billion in aid. In addition, our Senate approved $1 billion in loan guarantees and the EU promised more than 10 billion euros in the next few years. On the other hand, Yulia Tymoshenko, former Prime Minister of Ukraine, announced her candidacy for president. This ensures the standoff will remain in the news through the Ukrainian elections on May 25th.

Takeaways for the Week

  • Geopolitics is a major overhang to the momentum in the U.S. economy