George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
While market participants were keenly focused on fresh inflation data this week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed another milestone, passing 40,000 for the first time. Whenever the stock market reaches a new territory, we always want to revisit what the world was like when our firm was founded in 1975. When Ferguson Wellman opened its doors, the Dow traded at a price of 616.
Assumed to be postulated by Aristotle, “horror vacui” roughly translates to “nature abhors a vacuum.” The financial market equivalent would be “horror incertae,” or “markets abhor uncertainty.”
“The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.” Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated this point emphatically in his comments following the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). To most people this may seem like stating the obvious, but sometimes it bears repeating, especially considering the data released this week.
In recent months, stocks have experienced an impressive rally, resulting in many commentators and analysts creating new and unusual analogies. This week, our favorite is “the market’s new coffee table.”
Equities continued to rise steadily for the fourth consecutive week, reaching fresh all-time highs, as market participants digested several meaningful economic and policy data points.
For the week, the S&P 500 returned -1.41 percent and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield declined to 1.51 percent. On Friday, the S&P 500 declined by more than 2.5 percent on news that China had escalated the trade war which was coupled with a similar response from the White House.
After a huge run to start the year, equity markets declined throughout May as trade tensions re-escalated and fears of slowing economic growth came back into focus. This week, equity markets moved sharply higher with the S&P 500 closing within 2.5 percent of its all-time high.
On Wednesday, in a widely anticipated event, the Federal Reserve held a press conference and released the “minutes” from their last meeting. The Fed changed their forecast for the path of interest rates from two increases all the way down to … zero.
2019 is off to a turbulent start. The first couple trading days of the year were the worst in 18 years, only to be eclipsed by a huge rally today that left equity investors a bit richer for the week, albeit whipsawed in the process.
While expectations were for the Fed to raise the federal funds rate by 0.25 percent, there was a small glimmer of hope that they may hold pat.
Global markets sold off sharply on Wednesday and Thursday as investors continued to wrestle with a diverse set of risks.
