In what is commonly known as their dual mandate, the Federal Reserve is charged by Congress to effectively promote both maximum employment and stable prices in the U.S. economy.
Jobs > Inflation
The Fed Holds Fast
This week, all eyes were on the inflation report and the subsequent Federal Reserve announcement a day later. Since these were the last announcements of their kind for 2022, market participants were paying close attention, with the hope of gaining some insight into what the rest of the year might look like for markets.
Too Hot to Handle
Markets sold off this week, and dramatically on Friday, as new inflation data showed price increases reaccelerated in May. This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the most well-known measure of inflation, increased 1.0% in the month of May and increased 8.6% compared to the year-ago period. This number marks a new 41-year high for inflation.
Reinflation and Rotation
Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report spotlighted the difference between Wall Street and Main Street. The net loss of 140,000 jobs in December, driven by the loss of 372,000 restaurants and bar workers, was balanced by the increasing employment in other sectors of the economy, notably the manufacturing sector. These sectors continue to heal from the wrenching effects of the pandemic that took hold in last year’s first quarter.
A Lost Decade
This morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released unemployment statistics capturing the full effects of shelter-in-place mandates: in April, over 20 million jobs were lost, the highest monthly loss on record. This resulted in an unemployment rate of 14.7 percent, the highest since the Great Depression when unemployment was above 25 percent.
Growing... but Slowing
Earlier in this expansion it was all about jobs. Each month, we would wring our collective hands over how many jobs were created, what kind of jobs were created and whether they were even good jobs. Today, while it is still a market moving number, the monthly payroll report doesn’t seem to carry as much mindshare with Wall Street.
